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Analysis of Trades and Advice on Trading the British Pound
The test of the 1.2653 price occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving down from the zero level, confirming a valid entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair dropped by more than 30 points. Buying on the rebound from the target level of 1.2640 yielded about 20 points in profit.
According to recent data, the UK GDP contracted by 0.1% last month, which was an unexpected disappointment for analysts and investors. It was anticipated that the economy would show moderate growth, but the release of the statistics led to a negative market reaction. The British pound began to fall sharply, continuing the downward trend established the previous day. The current GDP decline could be linked to several factors, including high inflation, elevated interest rates, and business environment uncertainty. Small and medium-sized businesses are already struggling, while consumer spending continues to decline.
This afternoon, there is no U.S. economic data scheduled, giving the pound an opportunity for a slight recovery as the week closes.
For intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.
Scenario #1:Today, I plan to buy the pound near the 1.2649 level (green line on the chart) with a target at 1.2666 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.2666, I will exit purchases and open short positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 points downward. Pound appreciation today can be expected only as part of a correction.
Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2:I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.2630 price level, provided the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth toward 1.2649 and 1.2666 can be expected.
Scenario #1:I plan to sell the pound after it updates the 1.2630 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.2613, where I will exit short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 20-25 points upward. Sellers will emerge only after a strong upward correction.
Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2:I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.2649 price level, provided the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. Declines toward 1.2630 and 1.2613 can be expected.
Beginner traders in the Forex market must exercise extreme caution when deciding to enter the market. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you risk losing your entire deposit quickly, especially if you don't practice money management and trade in large volumes.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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