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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair climbed to the 200.0% corrective level at 1.2569 on Tuesday, rebounded from it, and turned in favor of the dollar with a subsequent fall below the support zone of 1.2488–1.2508. This consolidation suggests further decline toward the support zone of 1.2363–1.2370, from which the growth began a few days ago.
The wave structure is clear. The last completed downward wave broke the previous low, while the new upward wave has not yet broken the previous high. Thus, a "bearish" trend continues, and there is no doubt about it. For this trend to end, the pound must rise at least to the 1.2611–1.2622 zone and close confidently above it.
On Tuesday, the pound seemed to rely on traders buying it purely on enthusiasm. However, as the euro began to decline, the pound followed suit. In the second half of the day, U.S. data strengthened the bears' positions. The JOLTS report on job openings showed a value of nearly 8.1 million compared to market expectations of 7.7 million. Additionally, the ISM Services PMI came in significantly stronger than forecasts, at 54.1 against 53.3. As a result, the dollar's growth was supported by economic data, and the "bearish" trend remained intact despite the pair's strong rise in recent days.
The bulls urgently need informational support to resume growth. Otherwise, the pound may slip back to the 1.2363–1.2370 zone. This scenario seems more likely to me than the opposite. Undoubtedly, this week's reports on the U.S. labor market and unemployment could pose challenges for the dollar, but with two days remaining until Friday, the USD may hold near 1.2363–1.2370. In this case, even weak U.S. reports may not be sufficient to break the "bearish" trend.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair demonstrated a rebound from the 76.4% corrective level at 1.2565 and turned in favor of the USD. Thus, further decline remains more likely. The downward trend channel indicates the dominance of bears, which they are unlikely to lose anytime soon. Only a close above this channel would suggest strong growth for the pound.
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" category barely changed last week. The number of long positions among speculators decreased by 3,707, while short positions fell by 1,383. Bulls still have the advantage, but their lead has been shrinking in recent months. The gap between long and short positions is now only 19,000: 84,000 vs. 65,000.
I believe the pound continues to face downward risks, with COT reports signaling stronger bear positions almost weekly. Over the past three months, the number of long positions has dropped from 160,000 to 84,000, while short positions have risen from 52,000 to 65,000. Professional players are likely to keep reducing longs or increasing shorts as all possible factors supporting pound purchases have already played out. Graphical analysis also supports the pound's decline.
Wednesday's economic calendar includes three entries, with the ADP report being the most significant. The influence of the news background on trader sentiment today may be moderate but more pronounced in the second half of the day.
Sales of the pair were possible upon a rebound from the 1.2569 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.2488–1.2508. This target was achieved, and consolidation below it justifies staying in short positions. I will not consider buying today as I do not see strong signals for purchasing.
Fibonacci retracement levels:
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