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Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen
The designated levels were not tested in the first half of the day, so I did not make any trades.
The sharp decline in volatility for the USD/JPY pair continues to influence levels and strategies, requiring adjustments multiple times a day. In the second half of the day, the US Challenger Job Cuts data is unlikely to add volume to the market, so focus will shift to the speeches of Federal Reserve representatives, including FOMC member Patrick T. Harker, FOMC member Thomas Barkin, and the most notable speaker, Michelle Bowman. It's unlikely any of them will deviate from the Fed's plan to slow the pace of rate cuts, which could support the USD/JPY pair. However, remember that this trading instrument has recently exhibited independent movements, so don't be surprised if the dollar rises across the market but falls against the yen.
Intraday Trading Strategy
I will focus primarily on executing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
- Scenario #1: Plan to buy USD/JPY today at the 158.30 level (green line on the chart) with a target of 158.70 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.70, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a 30-35 point move in the opposite direction from the level). The pair's growth may continue within the prevailing uptrend.Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning to rise.
- Scenario #2: Another buying opportunity arises if there are two consecutive tests of the 157.98 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upwards. Expected targets are 158.30 and 158.70.
Sell Signal
- Scenario #1: Plan to sell USD/JPY after breaking below the 157.98 level (red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 157.52 level, where I will exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20-25 point move in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair today is possible only after dovish speeches from Fed representatives.Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and beginning to decline.
- Scenario #2: Another selling opportunity arises if there are two consecutive tests of the 158.30 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downwards. Expected targets are 157.98 and 157.52.
Chart Details
- Thin green line: Entry price for buying the instrument.
- Thick green line: Projected price for setting Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
- Thin red line: Entry price for selling the instrument.
- Thick red line: Projected price for setting Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further declines beyond this level are unlikely.
- MACD Indicator: Pay attention to overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.
Important Notes
Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is better to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Trading without stop-loss orders could quickly deplete your deposit, especially if you do not practice proper money management and trade large volumes.
To trade successfully, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, such as the one provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
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Rimani 
