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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair fell below the 261.8% retracement level of 1.2303 on Thursday, and on Friday, it continues its decline towards the 1.2171 level. Bulls have been unable to break the bearish trend and are currently absent from the market. Following the declines on Wednesday and Thursday, no attempts were made to push the pair upward, suggesting the downtrend could persist.
The wave structure is straightforward. The most recent completed wave downward broke the low of the previous wave, while the last upward wave failed to breach the previous peak. Thus, the bearish trend remains intact, with no signs of reversal. For the trend to end, GBP/USD would need to rise to at least the 1.2569 level and firmly close above it.
On Thursday, the pound could have seen a reprieve, but traders continued to sell it throughout the day. There was no significant news from either the UK or the US, yet this didn't deter the bears, who also actively sold off the pair on Wednesday in the absence of a news backdrop. Today's labor market reports, unemployment data, and wage figures from the US could potentially halt the bears' momentum, but this remains uncertain. Based on the current chart, there's little indication that the pound's decline will cease. US data would need to be particularly weak to disrupt the bearish trend. It's also worth noting that higher time frames provide a clear picture. The pound enjoyed significant demand for a long time, but this shifted in autumn last year when the Federal Reserve began its monetary policy easing. As the easing has been milder than many traders expected, the US dollar continues to strengthen.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 76.4% retracement level of 1.2565, reversed in favor of the US dollar, and fell to the 100.0% Fibonacci level of 1.2299. Holding below this level increases the likelihood of continued declines for the pound. The downward trend channel highlights the dominance of the bears, which they show no intention of relinquishing anytime soon. Only a close above the channel would signal a strong rise in the pound.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment of non-commercial traders changed little in the latest reporting week. Long positions held by speculators decreased by 3,707, while short positions fell by 1,383. Bulls still hold an advantage, but it has been dwindling in recent months. The gap between long and short positions is now only 19,000: 84,000 versus 65,000.
In my view, the pound remains poised for further declines, as the COT data indicates growing bearish positions almost weekly. Over the past three months, long positions have dropped from 160,000 to 84,000, while short contracts have risen from 52,000 to 65,000. I believe professional players will continue reducing their long positions or increasing their shorts, as all potential catalysts for pound purchases have already been factored in. Technical analysis also supports further pound depreciation.
Economic Calendar for the US and UK:
Friday's economic calendar includes four key events, which are likely to have a significant impact on market sentiment.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trader Recommendations:
Selling opportunities for the pair were available following the rebound from the 1.2569 level on the hourly chart. Additional selling opportunities arose after the close below the 1.2488–1.2508 zone. All nearby targets have been achieved, and the decline continues with a target of 1.2171. I do not recommend considering purchases today, but a rise is possible after the release of US statistics. However, this is unlikely to be accompanied by strong buy signals.
Fibonacci levels:
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