30.01.202512:48 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/CAD: Analysis and Forecast

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The USD/CAD pair has rebounded by more than 40 points from its intraday low today. However, spot prices fail to show a strong follow-through and remain within the familiar range that has held for the past month.

The Canadian dollar continues to face pressure due to the dovish stance of the Bank of Canada (BoC) and concerns over potential trade tariffs proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump. Since June 2024, the BoC has cut interest rates six times in a row and ended its quantitative tightening program.

Additionally, bearish sentiment in the oil market is weighing on the Canadian dollar, which is highly correlated with commodity prices. This, in turn, supports the USD/CAD pair.

On the other hand, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain its current monetary policy following its two-day meeting on Wednesday. The Fed made it clear that it will not rush into rate cuts unless there is convincing data on inflation and employment.

This provides some support for the U.S. dollar, acting as an additional bullish factor for USD/CAD. However, uncertainty surrounding Trump's administration policies has led to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, which is limiting the dollar's upward potential and restraining new bullish positions in USD/CAD.

Key Market Events to Watch

For potential trading opportunities today, traders should focus on:

The U.S. Q4 GDP report, set for release at the start of the North American session.
The U.S. Initial Jobless Claims report.
The impact of U.S. bond yields and Trump's trade policy announcements on the U.S. dollar.
Oil price movements, which could create short-term trading opportunities for USD/CAD.

Technical Outlook for USD/CAD

Oscillators on the daily chart remain in positive territory and are far from overbought levels, suggesting that the path of least resistance is to the upside. However, the 9-day EMA and 14-day EMA are currently merging, indicating that the pair is likely to remain range-bound for some time before a clearer directional move emerges.

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