19.02.202500:32 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Oil Market Awaits OPEC+ Decisions

Brent crude oil futures are currently trading around $75.00 per barrel, consolidating within a narrow range. The nearest resistance level is at $75.90, while support can be found around $74.20.

Support Levels:

- $74.20 – horizontal level

- $73.20 – trendline

Resistance Levels:

- $75.90 – nearest level

- $77.20 – key resistance zone

The RSI (Daily) is at 50, indicating a neutral zone with no clear trend.

The MACD suggests a potential reversal signal, which implies that the market may continue to move sideways before a significant move.

The 50-day EMA is around $75.50, making $75.90 a critical resistance level.

If the price consolidates above $75.90, an upward move toward $77.20 is likely. Conversely, if Brent drops below $74.20, the likelihood of testing $73.20 increases.

The overall outlook for the market is mixed. On one hand, there are signs of weakness in oil grades that affect WTI and Brent futures prices. On the other hand, the market is being supported by reports of a potential delay in the OPEC+ production increase that was initially scheduled for April.

Another source of uncertainty is the upcoming negotiations in Riyadh. Any signs of de-escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict could lead to the easing of sanctions on Russian oil, which would alter the supply-demand balance and potentially lower global prices.

Natural Gas

Natural gas futures continue a corrective pullback, nearly breaking out of their short-term ascending channel.

Key levels:Support: $3.527–3.537/MMBtu.Resistance: $3.717–3.745/MMBtu.

RSI (H4) is at 48, showing no signs of oversold conditions.

The MACD indicates weakening momentum, suggesting the correction may continue.

If the price falls below $3.527, it is likely to decline toward $3.400. Conversely, if the price consolidates above $3.717, it may open the path toward a range of $3.800 to $4.000.

The market dynamics for natural gas are heavily influenced by weather conditions and LNG export volumes. However, nearby resistance levels may restrict further upward potential.

Market Focus

OPEC+ is contemplating a delay in the planned increase in oil production scheduled for April. This factor supports prices, as extending the production cuts would limit global supply.

Iraqi Oil Minister Hayan Abdul Ghani has announced that oil exports from Iraqi Kurdistan could resume within a week, with an anticipated supply of 300,000 barrels per day, which could add additional volume to the market.

Additionally, a drone attack on a pumping station of a Russian oil pipeline has disrupted crude supplies from Kazakhstan. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which serves as the main export route for Kazakhstan, has been affected. The CPC accounts for approximately 1% of the global oil supply, with significant stakes held by U.S. companies Chevron and Exxon Mobil, making this situation particularly sensitive for the global market.