26.03.202511:54 Forex Analysis & Reviews: XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold continues to show a positive tone today, but conviction behind the upward movement remains weak. Market uncertainty, driven by the tariffs announced by Donald Trump—set to take effect on April 2—is supporting gold prices at elevated levels and remains a key factor pushing the precious metal north. Meanwhile, the Fed's forecast of two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the end of the year is further fueling the bullish outlook for gold.

At the same time, Russia and Ukraine, following U.S.-brokered negotiations, have reached an agreement to cease military strikes in the Black Sea and on energy infrastructure. Optimism surrounding China's stimulus measures aimed at boosting consumption is supporting positive sentiment in equity markets. This optimism is preventing gold bulls from initiating aggressive buying.

Additionally, some renewed buying of the U.S. dollar—after a pullback from its nearly three-week high—is also deterring traders from placing aggressive long positions in gold. Furthermore, the generally risk-positive market tone is limiting upward potential for the XAU/USD pair.

Today, traders should watch for the U.S. Durable Goods Orders report to provide some short-term momentum for XAU/USD. However, the market's primary focus remains on Friday's release of the U.S. Core PCE Price Index.

Technical Outlook

From a technical standpoint, bullish resilience around the key psychological level of $3000, combined with positive oscillators on the daily chart, suggests that the path of least resistance for gold remains to the upside. A move beyond yesterday's high near the $3036 level would confirm the constructive outlook and potentially lift XAU/USD toward its all-time high reached last week.

On the other hand, the $3000 round figure continues to act as critical support and a pivotal level. A decisive break below this level could trigger technical selling, dragging XAU/USD toward the $2980–2978 level. A deeper correction could extend further toward the next significant support near the previous breakout point—former resistance—at $2956.