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The euro and the pound held their ground under renewed selling pressure and even posted slight gains during today's Asian session.
Yesterday's weak data from the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the U.S. put some pressure on the dollar, but the larger impact came from another wave of sell-offs in the stock markets. Meanwhile, the European economy continues to show signs of slowing, while the resilience of the U.S. labor market and consumer spending will continue to support the dollar. However, with the new trade tariffs coming into effect today, it's difficult to say how things will develop. In the short term, volatility may persist due to the lack of important macroeconomic data, but further growth of EUR/USD will likely be limited. Market participants will probably focus on U.S. news to forecast the dollar's future dynamics.
In the near term, the key event for traders will be the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, which we will discuss in more detail in the afternoon forecast. During the European session, it's best to focus on the EU's response to the U.S. and potential trade talks, including those from the UK. The summary and minutes of the Bank of England's Financial Policy Committee meeting will be the only noteworthy publication.
If the data meets economists' expectations, following the Mean Reversion strategy is best. The Momentum strategy is recommended if the data significantly exceeds or falls short of expectations.
Buying on a breakout above 1.1050 may lead to a rise toward 1.1086 and 1.1143.
Selling on a breakout below 1.1020 may lead to a drop toward 1.0990 and 1.0942.
Buying on a breakout above 1.2850 may lead to a rise toward 1.2887 and 1.2929.
Selling on a breakout below 1.2810 may lead to a decline toward 1.2779 and 1.2711.
Buying on a breakout above 145.35 may lead to a rise toward 145.60 and 145.95.
Selling on a breakout below 144.95 may trigger a decline toward 144.50 and 144.00.
Look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.1085 on a return below this level.
Look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.0978 on a return above this level.
Look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.2873 on a return below this level.
Look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.2790 on a return above this level.
Look to sell after a failed breakout above 0.6020 on a return below this level.
Look to buy after a failed breakout below 0.5934 on a return above this level.
Look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.4263 on a return below this level.
Look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.4194 on a return above this level.
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