09.04.202512:07 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Bitcoin under selling pressure. Why even spike could hardly save bulls

Bitcoin is taking a nosedive, funds are reporting losses, and analysts see no reasons for growth. What is happening with the leader of the crypto market? What to do in this situation?

Bitcoin has once again found itself at the epicenter of instability. The price is steadily moving downward, despite brief attempts of recovery and surges in investor interest. After dropping from $94,000 to $74,000 and a large outflow of funds from crypto platforms, the market has entered a phase of struggle between fear and hope. But this time, the scales are tipping in favor of the bears. The fact is hard to ignore.

Technical analysis signals: it's time to short

While participants are guessing about the future, the charts are already speaking clearly: the local peak has passed, and the bearish pressure has been detected across all time frames. On the daily chart, we see capitulation—a series of red candles with increasing volume prove the sellers' dominance.

On the four-hour chart, a typical bearish picture has emerged—lower highs and lows. The break of the $74,400 level became the trigger for liquidity fleeing.

Currently, there is a weak technical bounce to $77,000, but the volume clearly shows that buyers don't believe in the uptrend in the near future. If this barrier is not broken confidently, the road is open to $72,000.

On the 1-hour chart, there are even more signs of weakness. Each failed attempt to hold above $78,000 is perceived as a good entry point for shorting. This is no longer just an opinion—this is the current rhythm of the market.

Oscillators show oversold conditions, but it's too early to go long

Yes, the RSI has dropped to 34, the Stochastic is below 20, and the CCI is at -265. This is a classic oversold zone. But interpreting this as a buying point is a dangerous trap.

Indicators do hint at a possible bounce, but it's important to remember that oversold conditions can persist for weeks in a falling market.

The MACD remains deeply in negative territory, and the moving averages (EMA, SMA) across all timeframes confirm the dominance of sellers. Until the price is firmly above $80,000, all long positions are opened against the trend.

Outflows from ETFs: an alarming signal

Funds that had previously fueled growth are now experiencing massive outflows. In one week, $173 million left Bitcoin ETFs. Tuesday was particularly alarming—$157 million in outflows in a single day.

The culprits are rhetoric surrounding interest rates in the US, geopolitical tensions, and uncertainty about the global economic future.

Even a local inflow on Wednesday couldn't compensate for the weekly loss. And what's even more concerning is that funds are being pulled not only from Bitcoin but also from Ethereum funds. This is no longer a coincidence but a sign of flight from crypto risks.

Whales are taking profits—and leaving

CryptoQuant's CEO Ki Yong Ju pointed out an important signal: realized capitalization is growing, while market capitalization is stagnating. This is an evident sign of the distribution phase, when large players exit the market with profits.

Such situations have often preceded long periods of decline. With a market capitalization above $1 trillion, the market couldn't gain a bullish momentum, meaning this phase may turn out to be a trap for late optimists.

Jack Dorsey: Bitcoin risks remaining unused

Doubts are popping up even among the most ardent Bitcoin supporters. Jack Dorsey, a proponent of crypto freedom, stated that if Bitcoin doesn't find practical applications, it will lose its value.

In his opinion, simply being "digital gold" is not enough. Without real-world use in everyday life, the asset loses its meaning.

He also criticized the Lightning Network for being complicated and unfriendly to users. Until the industry offers user-friendly solutions comparable to Visa or Mastercard, Bitcoin risks remaining an expensive but useless asset "just in case."

Towards $100,000 or down to $60,000? Liquidity will decide

The situation resembles a compressed spring. On the one hand, there's accumulation at support, technical oversold conditions, and a possible bounce to $78,000–$80,000. On the other hand, there's massive capital outflow, weak buyers, and a lack of new drivers.

Growth is possible, but it will be short-lived without new funds coming in or significant news (such as the approval of new ETFs or institutional involvement).

In the short term, BTC looks fragile: $74,000 is currently holding back the collapse, but a break below it could send the price to $71,500–$70,000. The bullish potential remains in the long run, provided that crypto becomes part of the real financial world, rather than just an asset "for emergencies."

Summary: the crypto market is running a marathon of endurance. Only the strongest will survive.

For traders, there are currently three scenarios.

• Bullish trading plan: go long at $74,000 when reversal signals and confirmed volumes appear. Target: $78,000–$79,000. Stop: below $73,000.
• Bearish trading plan: go short at the resistance zone $78,000–$80,000, target $72,000, possibly down to $68,000.
• Wait-and-see strategy: stay on the sidelines until a clear leader—buyers or sellers—assert themselves.

Meanwhile, the bears dominate the crypto market. Nevertheless, the crypto market is capable of surprising—history knows more than one powerful reversal.