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USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bullish bias above 0.9640. The pair broke above its 50-period moving average and is now challenging the nearest resistance at 0.9687 (Aug 24 & 25 top). The relative strength index stands firmly above its neutrality area at 50. A support base at 0.9640 (Aug 25 bottom) has formed, and the downside room should be limited by this level. The U.S. dollar was almost flat as traders awaited Yellen's speech at the annual Jackson Hole symposium. On the economic data front, initial jobless claims lowered slightly to 261k in the week ended Aug. 20th (estimated 265k) from 262k in the previous week. Continuing claims decreased to 2.15M in week ended Aug. 13th (forecasted 2.16M) compared with 2.18M in prior week. Separately, durable goods orders jumped by 4.4% in July in a preliminary estimate (estimated 3.4%) from a fall of 4.2% in June (revised from -3.9%). As long as 0.9640 is support, look for further advance to 0.9685 and then to 0.9710 in extension. Alternatively, below 0.9640, expect further downside with 0.9620 and 0.9590 as targets.
Resistance levels: 0.9685, 0.9710, 0.9750
Support levels: 0.9620, 0.9590, 0.9535
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