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On Wednesday, European data was positive and the euro chose the up direction. France’s Trade deficit was 4.4 billion euro vs. forecast for -5.0 billion euro. Industrial Production in Germany in June grew 2.4% vs. estimates for 0.3%. Unemployment Rate in Portugal dropped from 17.7% to 16.4%. It looks like positive macroeconomic from Europe news will be published further; the major factors of pressure on the market are cancellation of sequestration and trimming of QE3. The question is when the investors start to use these events. If the stock market did not decline for three days in a row (S&P 500 -0.38%) we would buy the euro during the week, as economic indices are expected to be positive on the whole. However, this divergence warns about possible reverse at any moment. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Sandra Pianalto said there had been “meaningful improvement” in the labor market and a scaling back of asset purchases may be warranted if it continues.
At 10:00 UTC+4 Germany’s Trade Balance in June is revealed; forecast 15.2 billion euro vs. 14.1 billion in May. At 12:00 UTC+4 ECB monthly Bulletin is issued. At 16:30 UTC+4 US Initial Jobless Claims, forecast 335K vs. 326K in the previous week.
Despite positive expectations on macroeconomic events, in the local situation the euro from the technical point of view looks overbought and the break of testing level 1.3308 may open the way to the decline up to the first target 1.3266.Consolidation above the yesterday’s high may direct the price to the resistance of trend line on the daily chart 1.3382.
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