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Trading plan for 11/07/2017:
The US Dollar strengthened a little overnight. The biggest move is noticeable at JPY and NZD. The other main currencies remain stable. Sentiment in the stock markets at the turn of the season remains unambiguously positive. Oil, gold, and copper are relatively stable overnight, but the pressure on the precious metals is maintained and sentiment towards energy commodities is clearly improving.
On Tuesday 11th of July, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but global investors will pay attention to Industrial production data from Italy, Housing Starts data from Canada and JOLTs Job Openings data from the US. Moreover, some central bank policy members will be speaking during the day. The first one to speak is FOMC member John C. Williams, then MPC member Andy Haldane, then BOE Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Ben Broadbent and at the end of the day FOMC member Lael Brainard will give a speech.
EUR/USD analysis for 11/07/2017:
The Industrial Production data from Italy is scheduled for release at 08:00 am GMT and market participants expect a solid increase in production from the level of -0.4% to 0.5% for the reported month. So, despite the fact, that Europe's third-largest economy continues to face headwinds, market participants are prepared for an upbeat data from this sector of the Italian economy. If so, the news will offer another reason to project that the Eurozone's recovery will endure. The yearly data supports this view as well because on a yearly basis the industrial output should increase from 1.0% to 2.1%, so this recovery might not be just a temporary coincidence. Moreover, if the data beats the consensus, the industrial output will double the previous annual gain.
Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the H1 time frame. The price is still trading sideway between the technical support at the level of 1.1378 and technical resistance at the level of 1.1444. The market conditions are oversold, but the momentum indicator is struggling to break out above the fifty level. Only a better than expected data might trigger another move upward in order to test the technical resistance at the level of 1.4444.
Market Snapshot: Crude Oil rebounds from oversold levels
Despite yesterday's marginal new low at the level of $43.64, the price of Crude Oil managed to bounce towards the next technical resistance at the level of $45.07. Nevertheless, the market is still trading below the golden trend line and the momentum indicator can not break out above the fifty level. All it means, the bounce might be short-lived and the price might get back to downtrend any time.
Market Snapshot: NZD/USD is back under the trend line
The upside breakout above the golden trend line around the level of 0.7300 was short-lived as the price only managed to make another marginal high at the level of 0.7345. Currently, the price got back under the trend line and it looks like the bears want to test the technical support at the level of 0.7186. Visible negative divergence supports the view.
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