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Trading plan for 13/07/2017:
After yesterday's Jannet Yellen speech the US Dollar is getting weaker across the board. The strongest currency is NZ with the rise of 0.33%, SEK with +0.28% gains, and EUR with +0.27% gains. CAD is trying to slow its uptrend after yesterday's Bank of Canada decision to raise interest rates. Oil failed to make a major upward correction and returned to decline. On the Asian stock market, there is definitely positive sentiment. The strongest in Asia is Hang Seng (+1.0%), followed by Shanghai Composite (+0.65%). The Nikkei 225 is fluctuating around yesterday's close.
On Thursday 13th of July, the event calendar is again busy with important data releases, especially during the US session. But before that Germany, France, and Spain will issue Consumer Price Index data, then the Bank of England will present Credit Conditions Survey for the second quarter. During the US session, market participants will get familiar with PPI Index, Unemployment Claims, and Continuing Claims. Moreover, there is a scheduled second part of the Federal Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellen testimony in front of the US Congress and some speeches of other FOMC members like Lael Brainard and Charles Evans.
EUR/USD analysis for 13/07/2017:
The German Consumer Price Index (CPI) data were released unchanged for the reported month and did not change on a yearly basis as well (0.2% m/m and 1.5% y/y). Nevertheless, inflation data this year has delivered several stronger-than-expected reports, so one month of stagnation will not make that much difference and will be considered as transitory.
The European Central Bank has offered only a little information regarding how or when it will begin to decrease its bond-buying program, but the recent bunch of firmer economic data from the Eurozone (for example yesterday's industrial production data and general outlook of the Eurozone second-quarter GDP) suggests that the ECB will soon be forced to reveal its plans.
Let's not take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the H1 time frame. The 61.8% Fibo retracement at the level of 1.1450 clearly makes the bull market a problem, as pointed out by the falling star candlestick formation. It can therefore be assumed that the supply side will soon take control of the market and lead to another slide towards the next technical support at the level of 1.1390 (which is the low corresponding to the SMA200 yesterday). On the other hand, any breakout above 1.1450 will result in an increase to 1.1490 (yesterday's high).
Market Snapshot: AUD/USD close to three-month highs
The price of AUD/USD surged yesterday to the level of 0.7731, which is close to the three-month high located at the level of 0.7748. Nevertheless, there is a clear bearish divergence between the price and the momentum indicator and at the lower time frames, the price is trading in overbought conditions. This is why some kind of a corrective pullback towards the technical support at the level of 0.7711 or even 0.7678 is expected.
Market Snapshot: Crude Oil declines back to the range
The price of Crude Oil reversed sharply after hitting the 78%Fibo at the level of $46.53 and currently is trading sideways in a tight range between the levels of $45.11 - $45.61. At hourly time frame the market conditions are oversold, so another test of the technical resistance at the level of $45.61 is expected, but as long as the level of $46.53 is not clearly violated, the bias remains bearish.
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