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On Tuesday, against our assumption about possible weak data on Economic Sentiment in Germany and the Eurozone, the indices were strong. ZEW Economic Sentiment was 58.6 vs. 44.0 in August. However, Current Account in the Eurozone in July was more intrinsic of the economic situation in the Eurozone; it was 11.1 billion euro vs. estimates for 15.3 billion euro and revised downwardly figure from June, 13.5 billion euro.
Today at 16:30 UTC+4 data on US Building Permits and Housing Starts is issued; figures of Housing Starts are expected to be 0.93 million vs. 0.90 million in July (y-o-y). At 22:00 UTC+4 the major event of the month, FOMC Economic Projections pertaining to QE3 is revealed. We expect the decrease in the volume of bond buying in $5-15 billion a month (from the current $85 billion). It is particularly the amount of decrease that will influence the power of market fluctuations. At 22:30 UTC+4 Ben Bernanke speaks.
We consider that reduction of quantitative easing program will be small-scale. Two major factors which the Federal Reserve System was expecting to deal with have transformed into not as important as they were, the war in Syria has lost its significance at the moment and the White House has stopped to insist on the rise of the national debt. Correspondingly, the Fed has to cover budget deficit.
The first bearish target is 1.3297, the low of August 27, the second is 1.3264, support of lilac trend line, and the third is 1.3231, the low of September 10.
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