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Trading plan for 31/08/2017:
The US Dollar remains strong after yesterday's better than expected data from the US. The currency group of EUR, JPY, CAD and NZD deepened its weakening overnight relative to the still much stronger USD and is trading below the closing of yesterday's session. On Wall Street, markets were trading in the green, where technology sector was leading. In Asia, the Nikkei 225 is rising 0.7%, on the other hand, Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng are under the line a little.
On Thursday 31st of August, the event calendar is quite busy with important economic releases. During the London session, Germany will present Retail Sales and Unemployment Rate data and France will post CPI data. Later on, CPI Flash and Unemployment Rate from the whole Eurozone will be posted. During the US session, Canada will present Gross Domestic Product data and Quarterly Gross Domestic Product Annualized data. The US will post Unemployment Claims, Continuing Claims, Personal Income and Personal Spending data and Chicago Purchasing Manager Index data.
EUR/USD analysis for 31/08/2017:
The CPI data from France and Unemployment data from Germany, Italy, and the whole Eurozone will dominate the mood of market participants during the London session. The Retail Sales from Germany have been already released and were worse than expected as market participants anticipated a decrease in sales from 1.2% to -0.5%, but the drop was -1.2% deep. On a yearly basis, the situation is not that bad as sales increased from 2.6% to 2.7% despite the recent drop. The CPI from France was in line with expectations at the level of 0.5%, which is good news, because it indicates the inflation accelerated 0.8% since the last reading. The other remaining data might beat the expectations as well, because the economic growth in the Eurozone is developing at the steady pace and so far there is no sign of a slowdown, especially in Germany.
Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the H1 time frame. The two last daily candles are Evening Star and almost-Marubozu-like down candle, which might be a very important sign of a trend reversal. So far, the bears have managed to test the 50% Fibo at the level of 1.1865 and now the prices are bouncing slightly from this level. The most important support is still the area between the levels of 1.1865 - 1.1817 and only a clear violation of this zone (ideally a daily candlestick close below the level of 1.1817) would confirm the uptrend is now reversing.
Market Snapshot: USD/JPY under the key resistance
The price of USD/JPY had bounced from the technical support at the level of 108.27, broken through the local resistance at the level of 109.84 and currently is trading just below the key technical resistance zone at the level of 110.61 - 111.01. The momentum is still pointing higher and there is no sign of any divergence, so higher levels test is possible soon.
Market Snapshot: Gold hits 127% Fibo extension
The price of Gold has hit the 127% Fibo extensions of the previous move down at the level of $1,312 and then reversed towards the nearest technical support at the level of $1,300. Currently, the price is still trying to resume the uptrend, but the momentum indicator and stochastic indicator are both pointing down. In a case of a further deterioration, the next technical support is seen at the level of $1,280.
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