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Trading plan for 13/10/2017:
A very quiet night on the financial markets, but like yesterday the US Dollar is losing ground to the other major currencies. The EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.1850. The British Pound is still strong: GBP/USD is close to 1.33. USD/JPY again descended to 112.00. On Wall Street, the sellers were slightly dominant yesterday - the SP500 futures are at the level of 2,500 points in the morning.
On Friday 13th of October, the event calendar is busy in important news releases. During the London session, Switzerland will post Producer and Import Prices data, Italy will post Consumer Price Index data and Germany will present Final Consumer Price Index data. During the US session, the US will present Consumer Price Index, Retail Sales and Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment data. Moreover, there are some speeches scheduled for later from FOMC officials Charles Evans, Robert Kaplan, and Jerome Powell.
EUR/USD analysis for 13/10/2017:
The Consumer Price Index data and Retail Sales from the US are scheduled for release at 12:30 pm GMT and market participants expect inflation to increase from 0.4% to 0.6% on the reported month. Retail Sales are expected to increase as well, from -0.2% last month to 1.7% this month. The impact of the recent hurricanes increases the uncertainty whether the expectations will be met. As the recovery continues in the Greater Houston area, we think the increased replacement purchases will boost retail sales in September. On the other hand, Hurricane Irma brought extensive power outages in Florida, which may have resulted in considerable loss of sales. Nevertheless, both natural disaster effects are transitory and they will unlikely to change the overall US economic outlook. The US labor market remains healthy and steady growth in personal income continues. High volatility is expected on the USD main pairs though.
Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture in the H4 time frame. The 61% Fibo at the level of 1.1876 acted as a proper resistance, so the price reversed and now is trading below the technical support at the level of 1.1829. The market conditions are overbought. So if the data meets the expectations, then a further move down is expected towards the level of 1.1790 and below.
Market Snapshot: Strong reversal from 50% Fibo
The price of EUR/GBP reversed strongly from 50% Fibo at the level of 0.9034 and now is trading below the technical support at the level of 0.8005. The downward momentum is strong, so there is still a chance the price will keep moving towards the level of 0.8791 before the market conditions become oversold.
Market Snapshot: GBP/JPY at the key resistance
The price of GBP/JPY is trading at the level of 148.93, just below the key trend line resistnace. The market conditions looks overbought, so the price might reverse here and fall towards the level of 147.66. On the other hand, a breakout higher opens the road towards the technical resistance at the level of 149.63.
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