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Global macro overview for 17/10/2017:
A surprising information on the Brexit negotiations is attacking the financial markets every day now. On Monday, the Pound went through a moment of increased volatility after reports that negotiations were heading for a "catastrophic collapse" unless the EU agreed to move forward the trade talks. The leaks come from the British neighborhood and show a sharpening of the position of London,
even though it is the EU that still has a stronger hand in this clash. The discouraging dispute over the progress of the talks concerns the costs of separation for the UK to pay. In a recent speech in Florence, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Theresa May, pledged up to EUR 20 billion during the transitional period, but the European side sees an amount closer to EUR 60 billion. Compromise is needed, and perhaps the EU summit will bring that to the end of the week, but for now, the negotiations are in a big mess. If we add a worse than expected recent economic data, then the Pound might get hit significantly in the coming days.
Let's now take a look at the GBP/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. There is a Bearish Flag pattern forming at this time frame, but any breakout above the technical resistance at the level of 149.63 will invalidate this pattern. The immediate support is seen at the level of 148.10, but the overbought market conditions indicate lower levels will be tested soon.
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