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The Gold price made a short-term spike above $1,200 but price soon after pulled back as expected towards $1,190. The price has broken out and below of the short-term bullish channel and is now pulling back. We cannot say confidently if a major low is in or this bounce was part of the larger decline that will eventually push us towards $1,140.
Red lines - new bearish channel
The Gold price is pulling back down. The pice should reach at least the 38% Fibonacci retracement if not the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. The fact that price remains below $1,200 increases the chances of the bearish scenario that this was only a short-term bounce. If the Gold price continues to make lower lows and lower highs and breaks below $1,174, we should expect $1,140 to be seen. Keep also an eye on the USD/CNY and how the negotiations for the trade talks between US and China proceed. More tariffs on Chinese products will increase the chances of a Yuan devaluation and thus Gold will move lower as it is very positively correlated to CNY.
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