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NZD/USD has been in a downtrend falling over 240 pips since it breached above 0.6750 with a daily close in July. Despite the rate cut, the steady gains of the greenback indicate the strength of the USD buyers and favorable market sentiment.
New Zealand's May Trade Balance for May came out at -264 million on a monthly basis and at -5,492M on year-to-date one signaling an increase in the global trading activity. Exports for June were reported at 5.01B, and the volume of imports was 4.65B. The RBNZ announced the further easing in August and pointed out that the risks related to trading activity rose, while the downside risks to the employment and inflation outlook remain unchanged. Before the monetary policy decision, any decrease in the employment change might impact on the New Zealand Dollar. Next week has lots of reports from the RBNZ, where the official cash rate is expected to be out along with the rate statement, giving a clue of the country's further economic development. Any dovish statement from the RBNZ might discourage the NZD buyers.
On the other hand, after the recent 25 points rate cut which surprisingly strengthened USD against all the currencies, today's NFP report is due. The Non-Farm Employment Change reading is expected to decrease to 164k from the previous figure of 224k. Moreover, Average Hourly Earnings indicator is forecast to remain unchanged at 0.2%, while the Unemployment Rate is anticipated to drop to 3.6% from the previous value of 3.7%. The recent FOMC Statement and Press Conference were quite hawkish considering the present US economic growth and low unemployment rate.
As for the current scenario, USD rules the pair despite the recent rate cut and the expectations of the upcoming weak Employment data. Ahead of NZD high impact events and reports next week, the kiwi is likely to soften a bit. However, the greenback may also weaken if the employment report fails to impress the market participants.
TECHNICAL OVERVIEW:
The pair was trading sideways with the daily close yesterday and resumed its downward movement today. It is likely to lower towards the 0.65 support area before any bullish intervention takes place or NZD bulls enter the market to lift the price towards the 0.6650 area or higher in the coming days. As far as the price remains above 0.6500 with a daily close, the further uptrend is expected to continue.
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