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Fresh fears over the global outlook following President Trump's latest tariff threat on China will support gold, especially with expectations of global monetary easing and currency wars. Buying pressure will also intensify if confidence in the dollar slides and gold has the potential to move to $1,500 per ounce this quarter. If strong US employment data on Friday triggers immediate dollar gains, look to buy gold on any dips to the $1,425 per ounce area.
President Trump announced that the US Administration would levy a 10% tariff on all remaining $300bn of Chinese exports from September 1st. He also warned that the tariffs could subsequently be increased to 25%. According to Trump, Chinese President Xi wants a deal, but is moving too slowly. The tactic is clearly designed to increase pressure on China, although the Beijing response was inevitably frosty.
Risk appetite deteriorated following the announcement with a sharp decline in equities and strong gains in Treasuries with the 10-year yield at 33-month lows below 1.90%.
Weaker risk appetite will boost demand for defensive assets and underpin gold in the short term, especially if equity markets continue to lose ground.
The threat of a further increase in tariffs will also trigger renewed concerns over the global manufacturing sector. Trump's continued willingness to use the tariffs weapon will also increase the risk of action against Europe given his accusation of European exchange rate manipulation and unfair trade practices.
Latest US ISM manufacturing data weakened to the lowest level since August 2016 with fears over further tariff-related disruption liable to increase short-term stresses across the industrial sector.
Further weakness in US manufacturing and the deterioration in global confidence will increase the potential for further Federal Reserve rate cuts and USD/JPY slid to 5-week lows near 107.00.
Trump is also likely to increase his rhetoric against a strong US dollar and, at some point, markets are likely to listen and push the US currency sharply lower.
Global central banks will maintain an easing bias with the ECB likely to cut rates in September and the Bank of Japan will also consider fresh easing. The Chinese yuan weakened sharply and the risks of a global currency war have increased further.
The combination of risk aversion, central bank easing and currency wars will provide strong underlying gold support.
Gold found support close to $1,400 per ounce on Thursday with a sharp recovery improving the technical outlook. Gold traded around $1,435 per ounce in early Europe on Friday with short-term resistance at $1,450.
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