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Last week, the pair went beyond the monthly short-term of December. This indicates the strength of the upward momentum, however, purchases from the current levels have ceased to be profitable, as the probability of forming a corrective model and returning to the limits of the monthly short circuit increases.
The current growth of the pair remains a medium-term impulse, which involves repeated updates of local highs. A sharp stop in growth is possible due to the fact that the pair went beyond the monthly short-term. The probability of returning to the limits of the December monthly short-term is 90%. This involves finding a pattern to sell the instrument. Sell from the current sessional marks without absorption does not make sense, because the momentum is quite strong and the size of the stop can be determined.
In the current pre-holiday market, it is quite difficult to determine the moment of a stop for correction, so you should wait for the breakdown of one of the younger control zones. Until then, it is not recommended to sell the instrument.
An alternative model of continuing growth without returning to the monthly short-term limit is 10%, which makes purchases from the current levels extremely unprofitable at a distance. It is important to note that the current growth of the pair is supported by a decline in oil prices. As long as this instrument forms a downward momentum, the pairs that correlate with oil will continue to move in the direction of weakening relative to the US dollar.
Day short - daily control zone. The zone formed by important data from the futures market, which change several times a year.
Weekly KZ - weekly control zone. The zone formed by the important marks of the futures market, which change several times a year.
Monthly KZ - monthly control zone. The zone, which is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.
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