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For the last trading day, the pound / dollar currency pair showed a low volatility of 74 points, but at the same time, there is an ambiguous upward interest in the market. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see the first decline in volatility in six trading days. Speculators restrain their ardor? I deeply doubt that a certain regrouping of the received super profits is most likely taking place. At the same time, a veil of uncertainty wraps Brexit. Therefore, we have to be working out the psychological level of 1.3000, and then attempt to jump up to the area of the periodic level of 1.3200 (20), where there was an accumulation earlier. On the other hand, the news background shudders again at the long-running issue of Brexit. This time we have Europe's responses to England's request to give them a further extension. The head of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, spoke last Wednesday at the European Parliament, where he said: "April 12 is the deadline for approval by the House of Commons of the exit agreement. If this does not happen by this time, then there will be no more short delay. " At the same time, the head of the EC added: "The scenario without a deal at midnight on April 12 is now very likely. This is not the outcome that I want. But this is an outcome for which, I am convinced, the European Union is ready. " On the trading chart, this news as such is not being played out, most likely, there is a reflection, since the news is extremely deplorable and based on it, the downward movement can resume. In Britain itself, alternative options continue to be discussed, where Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn agreed on a negotiation plan for developing compromise solutions. At the same time, the British Parliament passed a law requesting a new delay for Brexit. The document was approved by a margin of only one vote - 313 deputies were in favor, and the remaining 312 people were against. Analyzing the background in Britain, we literally do not understand what kind of floundering in a puddle, what kind of meaningless laws and plans which go nowhere, when the EU told them directly that the deadline is April 12, and then exit without a deal. After that, you can discuss as much as you want.
Today, there is no news flow, since statistics are not coming out. Thus, we continue to listen to the information background, where new gems can come from England regarding the postponement, the agreement and, in general, on Brexit.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the quotation came close to the earlier accumulation of 1.3200 / 1.3220, where the trading forces had been stopped and regrouped at the end of March. It is probably assume that a temporary turbulence at current coordinates, is possibly touching or entering the boundaries of the cluster. Considering everything that happens in the general plan of the information background, there is a high probability that the downward movement will resume. Thereby, traders are now monitoring the change in trading interest and price fixing lower than 1.3150.
Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations. Let's consider them:
- Positions for the purchase, as previously discussed, the speculators laid the upward position at the time of convergence with the level of 1.3000. Now, there is a process of fixing positions, where previously there was a discussion about the values of 1.3200-1.3220.
- Positions for sale are considered by traders when changing trading interest and fixing the price lower than 1.3150. The prospect of a decline is directed towards the levels of 1.3120-1.3070-1-3000.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing the different timeframe (TF) sector, we see that there is an upward interest against the background of the current correction in the short and intraday perspective. Meanwhile, the medium term preserves the general background of the market.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.
(April 4 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 38 points. It is likely to assume that if the market responds to the early information background and together with the current day's response, volatility can increase, reaching an average daily value.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.3220 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700
Support areas: 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
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