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The euro is gradually strengthening its position ahead of an important meeting of the European Central Bank, at which the interest rate is expected to remain unchanged. At today's meeting, the leadership of the European Central Bank will discuss issues relating to the future prospects of credit policy, but it is unlikely that any changes will be made. All emphasis will be shifted to the rhetoric in the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi. If there are concerns about downside risks to inflation, the pressure on the euro will increase. Also, investors will closely monitor the answer to questions related to the differential system of interest rates on deposits, as well as the details of the third stage of TLTRO.
Most likely, after the meeting, the pressure on the euro will return, and the breakthrough of important support levels in areas of 1.1250 and 1.1220 will resume the downward trend in risky assets, which will lead to the renewal of the monthly minimums in the areas of 1.1180 and 1.1120.
Italy's report on GDP growth forecast in 2019 did not please investors, as well as the fact that the IMF revised its vision of global economic growth.
The report indicates that Italy lowered its forecast for GDP growth in 2019 to 0.1% versus 1% earlier. The budget deficit forecast was also raised to 2.5% of the gross domestic product. Let me remind you that last year a struggle began between Rome and Brussels on the issue of an acceptable level of fiscal easing. Both sides agreed on a budget deficit level of 2.04% of GDP.
The International Monetary Fund in its report pointed out that the world economy in early 2019 is weaker than expected.
According to IMF forecasts, the world economy in 2019 will grow only by 3.3% against the forecast of 3.5% in January and 3.7% in October 2018. This is due to a slowdown in almost all advanced countries, including the United States. The IMF also drew attention to the persistence of tension in trade relations, as well as the introduction and increase of duties on the part of the United States and China.
Last night, the US Treasury Secretary and the Fed made a speech. Mnuchin raised the topic of US public debt and noted that US President Donald Trump wants the debt ceiling raised as soon as possible. In his opinion, a default on public debt would be rather disastrous for the American economy.
Fed spokesman Richard Clarida gave an interview yesterday in which he said that the Central Bank is analyzing monetary policy, during which the possibility inflation growth above 2% during economic upswings will be examined to compensate for lower inflation during recessions. During the analysis, the Fed will also try to find new policy instruments for periods when the rates are very low.
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