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The trade war between the United States and China nevertheless entered the active phase. This morning the tariff rate of 200 billion Chinese imports was raised from 10% to 25%. After several months of negotiations, both sides consistently reported progress. And the step taken by the US government looks unexpected and illogical.
Trump put the blame for disrupting the deal on the Chinese side. According to him, China has tightened the requirements in the negotiations hoping that the United States will have to agree to a number of additional conditions. The bluff failed, and negotiations are resumed at an accelerated rate.
The world still hopes that the deal will be concluded. Today, the Chinese delegation arrived in Washington, the Shanghai Composite adds more than 2% amid the resumption of negotiations. The USD / CNY rate rose above 6.8, which can also be considered a good sign of decrease in tension.
Most experts believe that even the successful completion of negotiations will not lead to a sustainable agreement. The United States intends to receive more than $ 100 billion in the budget, while for China, losses will approach 0.3% of GDP. China will be objectively interested in changing the economic structure and gradually abandoning the export-oriented economy in favor of strengthening domestic demand.
The dollar has all chances to complete the week by strengthening. Any interim outcome of the negotiations will be in his favor. Inflation forecasts are positive. The US Treasury report on the April budget is also expected to be convincing.
AUDUSD
As we have assumed earlier, the AUD did not find the strength to grow after the moderately hawkish decision of the RBA on the rate and resumed its decline. Investors are convinced that the decision to leave the rate at the current level of 1.5% is temporary, and the reduction will necessarily take place as soon as the two conditions that are set out in the RBA protocols are fulfilled. First, if inflation does not return to the range of 2-3% in the medium term, and secondly, if the unemployment rate does not fall. The first condition is fulfilled, while the labor market is still stable, which gave the RBA grounds for a breather.
In its latest quarterly statement on monetary policy, the RBA sharply reduced its expectations for GDP growth to 17% per year. This fall is due to the slow growth of GDP, already recorded in 2018, and the slowdown in investment in housing construction and consumption in early 2019.
The AI Group building index fell in April to an unprecedented 42.6p, monthly international trade and retail sales data indicate a slowdown in demand for consumer goods. Australia still maintain a steady surplus in foreign trade, but equipment imports are declining, which indirectly indicates a drop in investment.
AUDUSD remains under pressure, the direction of the monetary policy of the RBA is not in doubt. The immediate goal - support 0.6961 / 64, and further to 0.6910 / 20. Possible growth is limited to 0.7009 / 15 zone and can be used to enter short positions.
USDJPY
This morning, the Bank of Japan posted comments on the meeting of April 24/25. Focusing on the fact that Japan's economy is "developing moderately," BoJ noted an increase in stimulation in foreign economies amid falling global demand, which led to a slowdown in Japan's exports and production, and in the long run will lead to a decrease in consumption.
Consumer confidence fell in April to 40.4p against 40.5p in March, falling to a 5-year low.
The Bank of Japan hopes for inflation to target 2%, since it relies, among other things, on the expected wage growth. Meanwhile, the data for March published this morning indicates a fall in wages by 1.9% y / y, which virtually eliminates any upward pressure on prices. Deflationary trends can not be overcome.
The USDJPY came close to the support of 109.70, which we expected, but further dynamics are questionable. Technically, a breakthrough of support looks preferable, but the news about the resumption of trade negotiations led to a decrease in tension and the opening of European stock indices in the green zone, which could trigger a pullback to 110.04 and a departure in the lateral range.
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