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By the end of the last trading week, the pound / dollar currency pair showed volatility just slightly below the daily average of 86 points, but at the same time, we see that the bearish interest is firmly entrenched in the market. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see a steady downward interest, having the results of more than 320 points a week without any corrections. On the other hand, the level of 1.2770, which traders considered as a periodic pivot point and showing us the local minimum of February of the current year, declined, and the quotation was firmly fixed below it, demonstrating that the inertial move still remains on the market. Meanwhile, the information and the news background continues to be held on the "hype" of the ambiguous divorce process of the United Kingdom & European Union. This time we have a new statement by Prime Minister Theresa May - "When the draft agreement on leaving the EU is proposed to members of Parliament, it will be a new, bold proposal for deputies in the House of Commons with an improved package of measures, which, in my opinion, can get support."
The answer to this miracle agreement with the old ones was immediately followed by the Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, who appreciated the hopes of Theresa May skeptically, arguing that the "new" proposal is actually virtually no different from the previous one.
The general background information in Britain disappointingly pulls the pound to the bottom, preventing it from being corrected, but against the background of a severe overheating of short positions.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we do not have any solid data on the United States and Britain. Thus, we must continue to listen to the information background. Looking a little ahead, I would like to remind you that on the night of May 20-21 (2:00 Moscow time), Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will discuss the topic regarding the growing threats to the stability of the financial system of the United States, and in the light of the recent mutual increase in customs duties, between the US and China, Powell's words can seriously affect the market. For this reason, be careful about leaving your trading positions on the market if you decide not to close them by the end of the day.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading schedule, we see that the bears are sitting tight in shorts, and that there is currently this insignificant pullback. Many traders, including myself, have repeatedly stated that short positions are overheated and a correction is already approaching. This is the case. However, as long as the information background is rigid and will remain on the market, we may not see any significant reversal. Now, the first theoretical consideration is formed in the form of fluctuations of 1.2710 / 1.2770. Next, we move to the analysis of the breakdown of these same boundaries when placing trading orders.
Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations. Let's consider them:
- Positions for buy are considered in the case of price fixing higher than 1.2770, with preservation of bullish interest and then move to the level of 1.2850.
- Positions for sale are considered in terms of continuing the bearish rally, where the quote is lower than 1.2710, giving us the opportunity to enter the market.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing the different sectors of timeframes (TF), we see that in the short term, indicators have taken a neutral interest against the background of a small pullback. On the other hand, the intraday and mid-term outlook retains a downward interest in the market. This is understandable, as we take a look from last week.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.
(May 20, based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 17 points. Volatility is likely to increase all, whether this correction, or the continuation of the inertial course. Do not forget that on the night of May 20-21, there will be an additional incentive from the head of the Fed.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.2770 **; 1.2880 (1.2865-1.2880) *; 1.2920 * 1.3000 **; 1.3180 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700
Support areas: 1.2620; 1,2500 *; 1.2350 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
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