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On Tuesday, following the statement by Fed Chairman J. Powell that the regulator is monitoring the escalation of trade tensions between the US and trading partners and will react in order to maintain stability, a rush began in the markets, accompanied by an increase in demand for risky assets and a weaker US dollar.
Earlier, we pointed out that the start for such sentiment was the statement on Monday by Fed member J. Bullard, who said that he did not rule out lowering interest rates this year. On this wave, on Monday, the dollar began to decline in the Forex market, and global stock markets grow. Powell's speech only spurred this process, which caused a rally in the US stock market and supported a positive trend in Europe. Asia also supported this positive trend today.
Now, in our opinion, the market will assess the prospects for lowering interest rates based on incoming economic data, which, relatively speaking, will influence the dynamics of the markets in this way. If the values of production indicators, GDP, and inflation with the labor market will demonstrate not only a decline but even the lack of preservation of the current values - this may be a signal to investors to continue buying risky assets and selling the dollar, as it will strengthen the expectation of lower interest rates. Simply put, the markets will act according to the principle of "the worse, the better" - the more the situation in the country's economy worsens, the more chances that the Fed will begin the process of lowering interest rates. Naturally, in this situation, the rate of the American currency will decline.
Today, the market's attention will be drawn to the publication of employment data from the company ADP and the value of the index of business activity in the non-manufacturing sector (PMI) from ISM USA. If the figures are below forecasts, especially in relation to the index of business activity, this could be the basis for the resumption of sales of the US dollar.
Forecast of the day:
The EURUSD pair is trading above a strong resistance level on the wave of maintaining expectations of the Fed's monetary policy easing. If statistics from the United States is weaker than the forecast, the pair may continue its upward trend to 1.1300.
The NZDUSD pair is growing steadily amid a weakening dollar and expectations of rising demand for commodity assets. Today, if the pair will overcome the mark of 0.6650, it will continue to grow to 0.6700.
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