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China's decision to impose customs duties on US goods in response to similar and even harsher actions by the United States has severely undermined the dollar. The risk of a full-scale trade war, which has been going on for a long time, scares investors, and they continue to get rid of the dollar, choosing the single European currency as a protective tool. But the choice does not seem very successful, as the European macroeconomic statistics will be kind of a Downer even the most inveterate optimist. Preliminary data on inflation showed its slowdown from 1.7% to 1.2%, which is slightly stronger than expected. It was this sad news that stopped the growth of the single European currency. Although most of all this news upset all those who are looking forward to tomorrow's press conference of Mario Draghi. Together with the single European currency, the pound followed its continental neighbor like a dog's tail.
It is also interesting that the dollar was thrown from side to side quite well during the speech of Jerome Powell. His speech itself was more of a ritual nature, at least for the markets. It was dedicated to the development of adequate to modern conditions, tools of regulation of the financial system. That is, the words of the head of the Federal Reserve System are interesting from a scientific point of view, not practical. However, at the very end of his speech, Mr. Powell made a very interesting remark that it is no longer enough to develop a long-term strategy of the monetary authorities, which is known and understood by everyone. Understanding how monetary authorities will behave in normal conditions is no longer enough for both markets and long-term economic development. The head of the Federal Reserve System focused on the need to develop clear and transparent tools and models of behavior of monetary authorities in unforeseen situations. The goal is very simple - that all participants in economic activity, from the banker to housewives, had an understanding of how the Central Bank will behave in force majeure. This is in sharp contrast to what all the representatives of the Federal Reserve said just recently. A month ago, they all said that before making any decisions, it is necessary to understand the long-term effect that certain events can have. Referring to the aggravation of the trade conflict between the United States and China. So, the words of Jerome Powell are another way to prepare the public for a possible change in the policy of the Federal Reserve. And by this, everyone understands the reduction of the refinancing rate.
Today in the Old World, there are a lot of interesting macroeconomic data, which once again can show that the single European currency is not the best choice for the role of a protective asset. Thus, the final data on the indices of business activity should confirm the preliminary assessment, which showed a decline in the index of business activity in the service sector from 52.8 to 52.5. The same preliminary data showed that the composite index rose from 52.5 to 52.6, but the final data will almost certainly show a different picture, as not only the index of business activity in the service sector reduces but also the production index has already decreased. So, a composite index simply has nothing to grow from if both its components are declining. But it is much worse that the growth rate of retail sales can slow down from 1.9% to 1.5%, which against the background of lower inflation does not cause anything but anguish. But in the UK, the index of business activity in the service sector should increase from 50.4 to 50.6, but against the general background, it is of little interest. However, in the United States, macroeconomic statistics will not please anyone. The final data on the index of business activity in the service sector may show a decrease from 53.0 to 50.9, which was shown by the preliminary assessment. The composite index is expected to decrease from the same to 53.0 50.9 all the same. Not less important is the fact that the ADP data should show growth in employment by 183 million versus 275 thousand in the previous month. And this is against the background of the forthcoming publication of the report of the United States Department of labor on Friday, the forecasts for the content of which are already quite sad.
Thus, most likely, there will be a lull before the storm today, which will begin tomorrow with the press conference of Mario Draghi. So, the single European currency will be around 1.1250.
The pound is waiting for a similar fate, so it will hang at 1.2675.
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