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EUR/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair made a sharp turn in favor of the European currency at Mario Draghi's speech on June 6. The Chairman of the European Central Bank, as traders expected, noted the threats to the world economy by the regime of protectionism, noted weak inflation and said that the ECB is ready to start stimulating the economy, up to the reduction of the key rate, if the situation requires it. However, despite the frankly "dovish" color performances, traders still found in the words of Mario Draghi and positive notes. For example, the head of the ECB noted a good level of employment and rising wages. GDP forecasts for 2019 were also raised from 1.1% to 1.2%. In addition to Draghi's speech, the EU GDP indicator for the first quarter came out - +1.2%. As a result, the European currency rose almost to the correction level of 50.0% (1.1313), where traders began to close purchases, and in conjunction with the formation of bearish divergence from the MACD indicator, this led to a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a fall under the Fibo level of 61.8% (1.1281). In the end, on June 7, the fall in quotations of the pair can be continued towards the correctional level of 76.4% (1.1241). Today, traders will closely follow the release of data on Nonfarm Payrolls in the US, as well as the unemployment rate and wages.
The Fibo grid was built on extremums from March 7, 2019, March 20, 2019.
Forecast on EUR/USD and trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD currency pair closed below the correction level of 61.8%. Thus, I recommend selling the euro today with a target of 1.1241, a protective order above the Fibo level of 61.8%. I recommend buying a pair of EUR/USD after the close of quotes above the level of 61.8% for the purpose of a correction level of 1.1313 and a stop-loss order under 1.1281.
GBP/USD – 4H.
The GBP/USD pair once again rolled back from the highs, this time on Thursday. The UK continues to wait for the election of a new Prime Minister, as Theresa May officially resigns from the post of leader of the Conservative party today, and when the new Prime Minister is elected, then from the post of leader of the UK. The pound has managed to improve its position against the US currency over the past week, but it is difficult to expect anything more from the English currency now. Economic news from the UK today will not arrive, there may be reports on a political topic, but they are not very interesting for traders. Thus, the Forex market today will track only news from America, among which appear NonFarm Payrolls, unemployment, and wages. The forecasts for these reports are quite high, but if the real values are lower, the bulls on both pairs, EUR/USD and GBP/USD, can again start buying European currencies. The strengthening of the pound/dollar pair under the Fibo level of 76.4% (1.2661) will work in favor of the US currency and the resumption of the fall in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% (1.2437).
The Fibo grid was built on extremums from January 3, 2019, and March 13, 2019.
GBP/USD – 1H.
As seen on the hourly chart, the pound/dollar pair rebounded from the Fibo level of 161.8% (1.2673) with a reversal in favor of the English currency. However, the pair returned to the Fibo level of 161.8% by the current moment. A new rebound from this level will again allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the pound and some growth in the direction of the correction level of 127.2% (1.2780). There are no emerging divergences on the current chart in any indicator. The consolidation of quotations on June 7 under the Fibo level of 161.8% will increase the chances of the pair to further fall in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% (1.2437).
The Fibo grid was built on extremums from April 25, 2019, and May 3, 2019.
Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:
The GBP/USD pair made a new return to the correction level of 1.2673. I recommend buying the pair with the target of 1,2782, with stop-loss order below the level of 1.2673, if it will be rebounded from the level of 161.8%. I recommend selling the pair at the close of quotations under the Fibo level of 161.8%(hourly chart) with a target of 1.2554 and a protective order above the level of 1.2673.
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