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Over the past trading day, the currency pair pound / dollar showed volatility close to the average daily 74 points, as a result of maintaining an inertial movement. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that after a slight slowdown within the value of 1.2600, the inertial course resumed, breaking through the local minimum of 1.2558 (May 31), which played the fulcrum in the corrective course. Considering the graph in general terms, we see that the "Pulse --- Correction" clock base is alive as never before, and the main downward trend continues its formation, moving closer to the reference point of 1.2500, which has played a significant role in the market in global terms.
The information and news background of the past day was, frankly, empty. The statistics were not published, and there were no sharp statements about the UK-EU "divorce" process, or at least the topic of "trade won", was not in the media. Now, in English currency, there is still an unrealistically large background of uncertainty. The election of a new head of the Conservative Party and further steps in resolving the country's "divorce" process with the EU are worried about big business, and this, by the way, is one of the reasons for the downward trend that we are seeing in the market.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have statistics on the construction sector of the United States, where there is a slight increase. The number of building permits issued in May is growing from 1.290M to 1.296M, while the growth shows new home construction from 1.235M to 1.239M. It is worth recalling that traders are waiting for tomorrow's meeting of the Federal Commission on open market operations. Statistics on the UK is not published today; the only thing that can be singled out is the second round of internal party voting on candidates for the post of head of the British Conservatives and Prime Minister. Voting results must be summarized after 18:00 local time (17:00 Universal time)
Further development
Analyzing the current trading schedule, we see how the quote came close to the key point of support 1,2500, where it sharply slowed down. We can probably assume amplitude fluctuations within a given value, and only further we analyze the behavior of quotes and fixing points. It should be clearly understood that the pivot point 1,2500 is important in the market, since in case of its breakdown, we can already speak about a significant decrease, to the levels of 2017.
Based on the available information, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's consider them:
- Positions for purchase is considered in the case of price fixing higher than 1.2565, so as not to run into false fluctuations.
- We initially considered positions for sale from the point 1.2650, where we had a deal until now. When further actions will be taken, it will depend on the price fixing points relative to the level of 1.2500. Now, traders are armed with such thoughts - entry positions are lower than 1.2470, the primary perspective is 1.2433 (local chamber of history). Fixing points are analyzed relative to this chamber and further refills.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that indicators in the short term indicates an upward interest, against the background of stagnation - a pullback from the level. On the other hand, intraday and mid-term prospects maintain a downward interest against the general background of decline.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.
(June 18 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 32 points. Volatility will depend on the general background, as in the case of stagnation within this level, we can see quite low volatility.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.2620; 1.2770 **; 1.2880 (1.2865-1.2880) *; 1.2920 * 1.3000 **; 1.3180 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700.
Support areas: 1.2500; 1.2350 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
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