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This morning, we drew traders' attention to a macroeconomic report such as inflation in Germany for August. We also noticed that the report is quite interesting but it is unlikely to cause a strong reaction of traders. And so it happened. During today, the volatility of the EUR/USD pair remains low, no more than 32 points. Also, the downward mood of traders remains, as macroeconomic statistics from Europe disappointed again. The German inflation report showed a slowdown to 1.4% y/y, while forecasts predicted a decrease to 1.5% and the previous value was 1.7% y/y. In monthly terms, inflation lost 0.2%. Based on these figures, we may well expect the same low total for inflation in Germany for August, as well as a slowdown and European inflation. Recall that in July, EU inflation fell from 1.3% to 1.0% y/y. Accordingly, in August, we can expect a slowdown in the consumer price index to values of less than one percent.
What will the ECB do with disappointing inflation?
The obvious answer is to use monetary stimulus: cut rates, print money, lend to banks. Next question: when? We believe that the negative trend in reducing inflation will force Mario Draghi to take emergency measures at the next meeting, that is, in September. Most likely, it will be in September that the rate cut will be announced, as well as the resumption of the quantitative stimulus program. It should also be remembered that in two months, the 8-year term of the contract, Mario Draghi, will expire and he will resign. He will be replaced by Christine Lagarde, who has already left the post of IMF chairman. Many experts believe that Draghi will want to "slam the door" in the end and will go to a significant easing of the monetary policy of the ECB.
In the context of the euro and the EUR/USD currency pair, this does not bode well for the euro. We have repeatedly noted that the Fed has taken a course to reduce the rate, but this does not mean anything good for the euro, because the Fed will reduce the rate from 2.5%, and the ECB will start to reduce the rate from 0.0% -0.4%. Thus, the balance of monetary policies between the EU and the States will remain completely in favor of the euro. Accordingly, we may well expect a further fall in the euro.
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