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The euro/dollar currency pair showed a low volatility of 38 points by the end of last week, as a result of which there was an attempt to recover. From technical analysis, we see that there was an attempt to restore the downward trend, and the level of 1.1080 still plays the role of resistance. There is only one "but", the restraint of sellers is felt in the market, which can result in a certain range fluctuation.
As discussed in the previous review, speculators had hoped for a recovery process, but the result was a sluggish swing. It is not yet known whether further work will be carried out in the correction phase since the freezing in the form of a narrow flat can be delayed, but more on that later. Considering the trading chart in general terms (daily period), we see that the corrective move is still preserved on the market when considering everything that happens as a global trend, but there is a characteristic slowdown with a resistance point of 1.1080. The level of 1.1080, where the quotation rested, displays the lower limit of an accumulation from August.
Friday's news background was full of statistics, and so, the first indicators of Europe's GDP flew in, where they predicted a slowdown in economic growth, which, in principle, was obtained, not only to 1.1%, as expected, but to 1.2%. After that, more worthwhile data came out in the form of a report by the United States Department of Labor, where they expected a reduction in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector, in principle, they received it from 159K to 130K. In this case, the decline did not have a catastrophic effect, and, in principle, market participants were ready for this. In addition to everything, the average working week increased from 34.3 hours to 34.4 hours, as did the average hourly wage by 0.4%.
The information background was imprisoned in the divorce proceedings, so this time we had the approval of the House of Lords regarding the prohibition of a hard exit of Britain from the EU, in particular, this bill carries a request for a new delay. The French Foreign Minister, who criticized the delay in the process, said in particular, "We are not going to do this every three months." Europe needs clear explanations in terms of the need for deferment, with subsequent guarantees. In turn, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is still unable to acknowledge his mistakes and continues to assert a 100% exit on October 31, even contrary to the intention of the United Kingdom Parliament to achieve a new postponement. He made such a statement today at a joint press conference with the Prime Minister of Ireland, Leo Varadkar, in Dublin, where the issue of borders was discussed.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we do not have any solid data on Europe and the United States, thereby all hope for a further information background.
Further development
Analyzing the current trade chart, we see sluggish fluctuations within 1.1015/1.1050 where the quote seems to come to halt in expectation of something valuable, perhaps, of the upcoming ECB meeting (September 12). Traders, in turn, are in no hurry to make hasty actions, as, referring to the information and news background and, in particular, to the upcoming meeting of the ECB, there are good prerequisites for the depreciation of the euro. Thus, if there will be local jumps to the recent resistance point, they are temporary and are not so interesting in terms of laying the main trade deals.
It is likely to assume a temporary fluctuation within the previously indicated limits of 1.1015/1.1050, were entering the market from current points is not entirely acceptable, so it makes sense to wait for the most acceptable moment.
Based on the above information, we will derive trading recommendations:
Technical analysis
Analyzing different sectors of timeframes (TF), we see quite an interesting picture, so, indicators in the short term assess the current slowdown in the form of a sell signal, but the intraday took a neutral position. The medium-term outlook barely took a downward trend, although it is at the limit, and it is rational to designate it as neutral.
Volatility per week / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, calculated for the Month / Quarter / Year.
(September 9 was built taking into account the time of publication of the article)
The volatility of the current time is 26 points. If the information background will not be able to interest market participants, we will remain in a sluggish oscillation with low volatility.
Key level
Resistance zones: 1,1100**; 1,1180* ; 1,1300**; 1,1450; 1,1550; 1,1650*; 1,1720**; 1,1850**; 1,2100
Support zones: 1,1000***; 1,0850**; 1,0500***; 1,0350**; 1,0000***.
* Periodic Level
** Range Level
*** Psychological level
**** The article is based on the principle of conducting transactions, with daily adjustments.
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