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From the point of view of comprehensive technical analysis, we see that after the quote reached the psychological level of 1.3000 on Thursday [December 4], there was a significant slowdown, forming a horizontal oscillation with an amendment of 50-90 points. Looking at the past week as a whole, we can see that the downward movement received more than 500 points, a complete development of all previously available upward momentum. It turns out that no matter how strong the emotional background is, the market still returned to the same limits where it all began, at the long-playing flat of 1.2770/1.3000, increasing the probability of a further decline of the quote more than ever. However, it is worth considering that the rapid downward movement, which we saw earlier, can in some way slow down its activity, which will directly affect the volatility. If we are talking about market activity [volatility], it is worth mentioning that since the beginning of December, we have an average of 120 points from low to high, a certainly high value, and a long hold that can lead to a decline in activity. In turn, the emotional component of the market can not escape from the speculative trap, and perhaps a return to the framework of 1.2770/1.3000 will change the mood of market participants.
Analyzing the hourly chart on Friday, we see a kind of clock part correction -- > impulse, and only the support as it was in terms of the psychological level of 1.3000, remains. In turn, the dynamics of the market included a number of impulse candles in the time interval 17: 00-23: 00 [time on the trading terminal], which took over all the volatility of the day with 101 points.
As discussed in the previous review, many traders fixed their short positions as soon as the quote got close to the psychological mark of 1.3000. The next steps were in terms of waiting for the price fixing lower than 1,2990-1,2980, which did not happen.
Looking at the trading schedule generally [the day period], we can see that the incentive to resume the downward movement certainly exists in the market, however, it could not yet be on the scale. Meanwhile, the 2019 V-formation continues to develop at its peak.
Friday's news contained the final data on the GDP of Britain, where the previous figures revised for the worse 1.3% - - - >1.2%. The current ones, on the contrary, came out better than the forecast 1.0% - - - >1.0%. The United States posted a similar GDP figure for the third quarter, which recorded a slowdown in economic growth from 2.3% to 2.1%.
The market reaction to the statistics was initially in favor of the pound, however, the day ended with its decline.
In terms of background information, we had the most welcome event for brexiteers. The UK Parliament still approved the bill on the country's withdrawal from the European Union, as 358 deputies voted in favor of the document, against 234.
As Prime Minister Boris Johnson said- " WE did it!". Now, Britain has to finally adopt the law on withdrawal until January 31, and after that, there will be a transition period, however, it was reduced to a year, which did not suit very many.
With this, the opposition fears that the tight deadlines will not allow to implement all the plans, and England might get an inappropriate deal.
"Negotiations on trade agreements of the European Union with Canada, the United States, or with anyone lasted for 14-15 years. And Boris Johnson wants to sign a full-scale Treaty in 11 months," the opposition said.
The market reaction to such a large-scale event was almost absent for the reason that even before the vote, everyone knew that the new Parliament under the auspices of Johnson would vote to approve the document.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we only have orders for durable US goods, which, according to expectations, should grow by 1.1%, and can locally support the dollar.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the psychological level of 1.3000 still plays a role as a fulcrum, putting pressure on the quote. In fact, the horizontal movement along the control level is still maintained, but the market activity is not so great.
Detailing the minute-by-minute portion of time, we see that the day began with a consolidation of about 10 points of amplitude, followed by a small spike into the market of Europeans at the time of entry, followed by stagnation. Volatility at this time, as well as the potential of speculators, is small.
In turn, traders are still hoping for a further descent, where they consider their positions as soon as the quote manages to fix below the area of 1,2990/1,2980. Speculators do not waste time and work on a local rebound from the level.
All in all, we can assume that a kind of chatter within the level of 1.3000 will still remain in the market, where the main values will be 1.2980/1.3090.
Based on the information above, we san derive these trading recommendations:
-Consider buy positions in case of price fixing higher than 1.3090.
- Sell positions in case of price fixing below 1.2980.
Indicator analysis
Analyzing the different sectors of the timeframes (TF), we can see that the indicators are mostly directed downward, which can not be said about short-term segments that produce multidirectional signals against the background of stagnation.
Volatility for the week / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
The measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, calculated for the Month / Quarter / Year.
(December 23 was built taking into account the time of publication of the article)
The volatility of the current time is 43 points, which is still small. Acceleration is still likely possible but so far within the average, unless the quote will not be able to break through the psychological level.
Key level
Resistance zones: 1,3180**; 1,3300**; 1,3600; 1,3850; 1,4000***; 1,4350**.
Support areas: 1,3000; 1,2885*; 1,2770**; 1,2700*; 1,2620; 1,2580*; 1,2500**; 1,2350**; 1,2205(+/- 10p.)*; 1,2150**; 1,2000***; 1,1700; 1,1475**.
* Periodic level
** Range level
***Psychological level
**** The article is based on the principle of conducting transactions, with daily adjustment
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