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Yesterday, the market should have focused mainly on macroeconomic statistics. But its influence was extremely weak. The fact is that politics has again intervened. Exclusively from the US. Washington suddenly decided to close the Chinese consulate in Houston. Beijing has already called these actions reckless and hostile, aimed solely at worsening relations between China and the United States. There is little doubt that Beijing will respond with similar actions. At the same time, relations between the world's two largest economies are already at their worst in recent decades. So we cannot rule out that the next step will be the mutual expulsion of diplomats. In any case, all this suggests that relations between China and the United States will clearly not improve in the near future. This means that the tension in the world will only increase. And of course, such things have a negative impact on the dollar.
Nevertheless, market participants did not disregard macroeconomic data, which helped the dollar slightly win back losses. Although the data on home sales in the secondary market turned out to be worse than forecasted. They grew by only 20.7%, while an increase of 23.0% was predicted. In absolute terms, sales increased from 3.91 million to 4.72 million. So we are still talking about growth, and its significance. The dollar could have strengthened more sharply, but it was under pressure from housing prices, which fell by 0.3%. And this completely contradicted the forecasts of 0.4% growth. So, although the data were positive, they were not without negative.
Existing Home Sales (United States):
If the next political scandal does not take place today, market participants will focus on the data on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. And there is a hope that it could help the dollar in correcting the imbalances in the market. Although the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits should remain practically unchanged, as it could decrease from 1,300,000 to 1,295,000, but the number of repeated applications may decrease from 17,338,000 to 17,100,000. The total number of applications is still incredibly large, but the downward trend seems to be quite stable. Which, of course, pleases market participants.
Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits (United States):
The euro/dollar pair still has speculative upward interest, keeping quotes at high levels, which indicates the growing oversold of the US dollar in the market. The 1.1600 level is the variable resistance in this case, which reflects the area of 2018.
In terms of dynamics, high activity is visible, which signals a high speculative interest.
Considering the trading chart in general terms (daily period), one can see that over the last three months, the quote managed to recover by half relative to the medium-term downward trend from the beginning of 2018, which signals a change in interests.
It can be assumed that the quote will continue to concentrate within the 1.1600 price mark, where if it breaks out, speculation in the 1.1650 direction may occur, but the fact that the US dollar is oversold will not disappear anywhere. Therefore, a small change in the mood of speculators is enough for a correction to occur. US data could help change the market sentiment in favor of a correction.
From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments on the minute, hourly and daily intervals signal a buy due to the price finding at the highs of the current year.
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