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Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD pair continues to trade according to the upward trend, which is signaled by the ascending channel (indicated in red in the illustration). The fact that the price continues to stay inside it indicates that traders continue to buy the European currency. Accordingly, novice traders are also advised to trade strictly on the trend. The nearest target levels on Monday are 1.1674 and 1.1721. Given that the current price value (at the time of writing) is equal to 1.1655, both goals can be reached as early as Monday. At the same time, no one is ever immune from a correction or change in the trend. For these purposes, the MACD indicator is attached at the bottom of the chart, which is designed to track corrections and movements against the trend. If the histogram (gray columns) starts to fall, and the signal line (red) is located above the histogram (that is, there will be an intersection), it will mean that the EUR/USD pair has started a local correction and may fall to the bottom line of the ascending channel. If the price goes below the ascending channel, it will mean a change in the trend and that the bulls are temporarily leaving the market and it is time for sellers.
On Monday, we advise novice traders to pay attention to the report on durable goods orders in the US. This report is important because this category of goods has a high price, respectively, the sales of these goods are expressed in huge amounts, which are reflected in the final GDP indicator, which is the most important indicator of the state of any economy. For example, if orders for durable goods in June rise more than 1.5% (forecast), it would mean that the US dollar could rise after this report. However, you should be careful, since four indicators will be released at once for orders for durable goods in various categories. Therefore, in this case, today it will be necessary to see how many of the four indicators will exceed the forecast. If the excess is by three or four, then market participants may start buying the US dollar, which will cause the euro/dollar pair to fall. No more news is planned for today.
The following scenarios are possible on July 27:
1) Purchases of the euro are still relevant. Therefore, we advise you to assess the situation on the currency market as early as possible in the morning and, if the MACD indicator does not turn down by then, then open purchases of the pair with the goals of 1.1674 and 1.1721. If it turns around, we recommend waiting for a new turn up, if the price does not have time to consolidate itself below the ascending channel.
2) We recommend selling the currency pair if the price is consolidated below the ascending channel at the end of any hour. This will mean a change in the trend and sales will become more relevant. The first targets are the 1.1549 and 1.1502 levels. The first goal will most likely be reached, and we recommend setting Take Profit near it.
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly affect the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is advised to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners in the forex market should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
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