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GBP/USD 1H
The GBP/USD pair moved almost identical to the European currency on August 7. This is easily explained by the fundamental background that was the same for both pairs. Thus, by the end of the trading day, the pound/dollar pair fell below the critical Kijun-sen line, which gives some hope for a further drop in quotes. It should also be noted that earlier the pair was pinned below the upward trend line, and later failed twice to overcome the resistance level of 1.3169. Thus, the bears get a good chance of moving down. However, the pair has not yet been able to even reach the previous local low. Thus, the bears' positions look very shaky right now.
GBP/USD 15M
Both linear regression channels turned down on the 15-minute timeframe, indicating a downward trend in the short term. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report for the British pound, which was released on Friday, finally matched what is happening now in the market. Recall that two COT reports previously showed a decline in the net position of non-commercial traders, which, in fact, means that the bullish mood is weakening. That is, the most important category of "non-commercial" traders reduced (roughly speaking) purchases of the pound over the previous two weeks and at the same time, the British currency started to appreciate. However, the latest COT report finally showed that non-commercial traders increased the number of Buy-contracts by almost 5,000. At the same time, they also closed Sell-contracts, which were reduced by 3,500. Thus, the total net position for this category increased by 8,500. Consider the illustration below.
If the graphical representation of the COT report looked absolutely clear for the euro, then it is more difficult for the pound. In recent weeks, the difference between the net positions of non-commercial(green line) and commercial (red line) traders has been narrowing. This does not mean that the pair should stand in one place in the flat, but such indicator readings do not allow us to assume a change in the trend in the near future. However, this may still happen, since this is the scenario that is brewing for the euro/dollar pair, and the pound has even more reason to fall than the euro.
The fundamental background for the GBP/USD pair slightly changed on Friday. The US economy has begun to recover, as signaled by reports on unemployment and new jobs created outside the agricultural sector. The UK did not provide any news or reports, so the fundamental background was the same as for the euro/dollar pair. Not surprisingly, both pairs traded identically on the last trading day of the week. Traders will not receive any important information on Monday, at least not planned. But a large amount of important macroeconomic information will be published in Britain on Tuesday and Wednesday, which can change the mood of traders. The unemployment rate and changes in average wages will be released on Tuesday, and GDP for the second quarter and industrial production will be published on Wednesday. Thus, the mood of market participants for this week will depend on these reports. And of course, do not forget about the coronavirus epidemic in the United States. If data on the increase in the number of diseases begins to arrive again, the US dollar may very quickly fall under a new wave of sales.
There are two main options for the development of events as of August 10:
1) Buyers continue to dominate the market. However, they did not manage to gain a foothold above the previous local high of 1.3169. Thus, we recommend opening new purchases of the British currency, but not before the 1.3169 level has been overcome with targets at the resistance levels of 1.3240 and 1.3400 (to be specified today). Potential Take Profit in this case is from 40 to 200 points.
2) Bears have a new chance to start a downward trend, as prices have consolidated below the Kijun-sen line. Thus, it is now recommended to trade down while aiming for the Senkou Span B line (1.2919) and the support level of 1.2850. Potential Take Profit in this case is from 110 to 170 points. However, you should be careful with sales. There are many factors working in favor of a brewing fall, but the bears are still very weak.
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