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The past trading day was spent on a wave of buyers, where the quote managed to locally overcome the high (1.3147) of August 24. The candle shadows also moved closer to the upper limit of the flat formation 1.2985 (1.3000) // 1.3085 // 1.3185, where there was a natural stagnation, resulting in a rebound in the opposite direction.
The area of conditional resistance overcomes the coordinates 1.3165/1.3185, where there was a price slowdown occurring at the systematic level. Market participants were ready for such price development, therefore, the volume of long positions decelerated.
Analyzing the last trading day by minute, you can see that the round of long positions appeared during the Asian session, however, the shadows reached the control area at 12:00 Universal time on the trading terminal.
In terms of daily dynamics, the indicator is almost equal to the average level of 115 to 112 points. Moreover, if we analyze the daily volatility, it was shown that the dynamics in the conditional flat exceeds the rate of this type of movement. This suggests that speculators prevail in the market.
Based on the previous review, traders considered a surge in activity in the event of a breakout of the local high on August 24, which happened in the market.
Considering the trading chart in general terms (daily period), there were no significant changes. The quote still hangs at the conditional peak of July inertia.
The news background of the past day contained statistics on new home sales in the United States, which successfully pleased investors. So, in July, sales grew by 13.9% instead of 1.3%. The previous data were revised in favor of growth, that is, from 13.8% to 15.1%. In numerical values, it increased from 791 thousand to 901 thousand.
The market reaction was expressed in the form of a slowdown in the upward trend.
For the information background, there was a rumor that British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, will possibly leave his post in the next six months due to complications after suffering from COVID-19. This information comes from the close circle of the minister. Thus, if Britain fails to conclude a deal with the EU on Brexit before his resignation, then another unplanned delay or exit without a deal can be expected.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, data on the volume of orders for durable goods for July will be published, where growth of 4.3% is expected.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, price fluctuations can be seen within the levels of 1.3115/1.3150, which coincides with the dynamics of the end of the previous day. It will not be possible to keep the narrow limits, and perhaps, there will be a breakdown in the very near future, which will lead to another surge in activity.
The most suitable tactic in this scenario is local operations based on the breakdown of a particular border of stagnation.
Here's our trading recommendations based on the above information:
- Buying at a price above 1.3160 is recommended, with the prospect of moving to the 1.3180 - 1.3200 area.
- Selling at a price below 1.3115 is recommended, with the prospect of moving to the level of 1.3055.
Indicator analysis
Analyzing different sectors of time frames (TF), it can be seen that the indicators of technical instruments on the minute, hourly and daily intervals signal a buy.
Weekly volatility/Volatility measurement: Month; Quarter; Year
The volatility measurement reflects the average daily fluctuations, calculated per Month/Quarter/Year.
(It was built considering the time of publication of the article)
The volatility of the current time is 33 points, which is 71% below the daily average. A rise in activity occurs at the time of breakdown of stagnation.
Key levels
Resistance zones: 1.3200; 1.3300 **; 1.3600; 1.3850; 1.4000 ***; 1.4350 **.
Support zones: 1.3000 ***; 1.2885 *; 1.2770 **; 1.2620; 1.2500; 1.2350 **; 1.2250; 1.2150 **; 1.2000 *** (1.1957); 1.1850; 1.1660; 1.1450 (1.1411); 1.1300; 1.1000; 1.0800; 1.0500; 1.0000.
* Periodic level
** Range level
*** Psychological level
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