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GBP/USD 15M
Both linear regression channels are directed to the downside on the 15-minute timeframe. 2.5-year highs are located around 1.3700, while the pair is currently only 200 points down. Thus, there is also a downward trend in the short term, but it is still quite controversial and doubtful.
GBP/USD 1H
The GBP/USD pair continued its downward movement on Monday, and it only pulled back at the end of the day. Also, like the euro, a descending channel has been created, which now supports those who are trading down. The quotes have reached its lower limit at this time, so an upward correction is a very logical scenario. The closest reference points for correction are the Senkou Span B and Kijun-sen lines. Rebounding from any of them can provoke a new round of downward movement. Rebounding from the upper line of the descending channel will also serve as a signal for new sales of the pair. At the moment, buyers have very little chance of returning the initiative into their own hands. Around 100 points up to the upper border of the channel. Moreover, it is necessary to surpass the resistance area of 1.3606-1.3626, from which the quotes rebounded several times. But at the same time, we cannot say that the pound has started a full-fledged downward trend. So far, this is a difficult short-term downward correction, which can break off at any moment.
COT report
The GBP/USD pair increased by 120 points during the last reporting week (December 29-January 4). The pound continues to maintain a steady upward trend. And the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which came out last Friday, showed minimal changes again. During the New Year's week, professional traders opened about 1,000 Buy-contracts (longs) and 1,000 Sell-contracts (shorts). Thus, the net position for the "non-commercial" group of traders has not changed at all. It makes no sense to also consider changes in other groups of traders, as they are also insignificant. Non-commercial traders have been extremely cautious about the pound for several weeks now, trying to trade it at a minimum. This is also supported by the fact that the total number of contracts for the "non-commercial" group is only 85,000 (for comparison, 340,000 for euros). The first indicator shows that the mood of large traders has remained practically unchanged in recent weeks. If earlier the green and red lines regularly changed the direction of movement, crossed, removed or approached, now they are directed to the side. But even this factor does not prevent the pound from growing in price. We conclude that now everything depends on the demand for the US dollar. As for the conclusions of the COT report itself, there are none.
The fundamental background is, in principle, a rather funny topic now. It is either completely ignored by the markets, or the reaction to it is directly opposite to the nature of news and reports. In general, the foundation does not help now, but on the contrary, confuses traders. No important news and reports on Monday, except for those related to the epidemiological situation in the UK. It continues to deteriorate, and the prospects for the British economy go with them. However, if the market reaction to these events and concerns is 200 points down on a strong upward trend, then this can hardly be considered a reaction at all.
Again, nothing interesting planned in the UK on Tuesday. Therefore, there will be nothing to pay attention to. We believe that the current fall in the British currency is also associated with profit taking on long positions. If we try to look at the whole picture, then we have long been waiting for a new downward trend. If we assume that it has just begun, then it has excellent prospects. It is worth noting that the pound is quite overbought even from a technical point of view. The problem is that this is not an argument for selling the currency. Therefore, we can say this: the probability of continuing the downward hike is 60%. There are downward channels, within them, and you should try to work out the downward trend.
We have two trading ideas for January 12:
1) Buyers for the pound/dollar pair have receded into the background for now. Sellers try to pull down the pair as much as possible while there is such an opportunity. But they are bad at it. Thus, you can buy the pound again when the price has finally settled above the descending channel while the initial targets are 1.3667 and 1.3700. Take Profit in this case will be up to 80 points.
2) Sellers seem to have seized the initiative in the market, but so far they cannot form a clear downward trend, the price is constantly rolling back up. Thus, you are advised to open new short positions with targets at the support level of 1.3429 and the support area of 1.3395-1.3403, if the pair's quotes rebound from the Kijun-sen line (1.3557) or the upper line of the descending channel. Take Profit in this case will be from 100 to 170 points.
Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD
Explanations for illustrations:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group.
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