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GBP/USD 15M
Both linear regression channels are directed to the downside on the 15-minute timeframe, but it seems that it won't be for long. The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are now some kind of reference points for an over-short-term trend. Therefore, overcoming these lines will work in favor of bringing back the upward trend.
GBP/USD 1H
If the EUR/USD pair has started a more or less tangible and conscious downward movement, then the GBP/USD pair continues to trade in the "swing" mode. Moreover, it erratically moves near the 1.3700 level, which was tested three times and the pair rebounded off it each time. Nevertheless, the price does not go far down and does not form a new downward trend. This means that most likely, there will be a fourth test of the 1.3700 level and a fifth, in general, as long as it takes to overcome it. If we are still leaning towards the beginning of a downward trend for the euro, then we are leaning towards continuing the upward movement for the pound, despite the fact that, from a fundamental point of view, there are even fewer reasons for the pound's growth than for the euro. But what to do if market participants stubbornly refuse to get rid of the British currency? If market participants stubbornly refuse to pay attention to all the economic and epidemiological problems of the UK? Returning the price to the area above the 1.3606-1.3626 area and having it settle there could be a signal for new purchases.
COT report
The GBP/USD pair fell by 60 points during the last reporting week (January 5-11). Although the pound as a whole continues to maintain a steady upward trend. But the changes that the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed are really impressive. Take note that the last few reports differed with scanty changes that didn't make it possible for us to draw any conclusions. Professional traders simply opened very few contracts for the pound. From our point of view, the "Non-commercial" group's behavior is quite understandable. There are few reasons to actively trade the pound, given the epidemiological and economic news from Great Britain. But in the last reporting week, professional traders opened 10,500 Buy-contracts (longs) and 3,200 Sell-contracts (shorts) at once. Considering that around 80,000 contracts were opened before this report, +13,000 is a lot. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 7,000. Simply put, major players have become much more bullish. Thus, the technique and COT reports speak in favor of continuing the upward movement. But how long will market participants ignore the fundamental background?
A fundamental calm is currently present in the UK. There is quite a lot of news regarding quarantine, its validity period, vaccination, but all this is not the same. It is not interesting for traders right now. Market participants don't have much interesting information to work with. It is still completely unclear as to what guides traders when they buy the pound. However, as the latest COT report showed, professional players have found reasons to open new 10,000 Buy-contracts. Here's the official data from the camp of major players, who are quite likely guided by their own reasons. The head of the Bank of England, who spoke yesterday, did not say anything new and interesting for the markets. However, his last speech showed that traders are ready to accept only positive information in order to have grounds for new purchases of the pound, and they ignore all the negative ones. Thus, what BoE Governor Andrew Bailey will say in each of his next speeches is not that important at the moment.
Andy Haldane, a member of the Monetary Policy committee, will speak in the UK on Tuesday. However, there is no reason to assume that the markets will notice it at all. For today, we recommend trading based on the technique. No data expected from the US and UK. But this does not mean that the pair will stand in one place. Rather, on the contrary, it will be traded very actively.
We have two trading ideas for January 19:
1) The "swing" continues for the pound/dollar pair, so now it is generally very difficult to determine who is in control. If the price returns to the area above the Kijun-sen line as well as 1.3606-1.3626, then you can buy the pound while aiming for 1.3700. Take Profit in this case will be up to 70 points. You can buy further if the price surpasses the 1.3700 level.
2) Sellers still have small chances of continuing the downward movement, but they need to stay below the Senkou Span B line (1.3576). If the price rebounds off the Senkou Span B line, then you can open short positions while aiming for the support level of 1.3452. Take Profit in this case will be up to 100 points. But take note that the pound is still gravitating towards growth.
Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD
Explanations for illustrations:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group.
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