29.03.202117:15 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Bitcoin: long-term forecasts remain uncertain

As we expected on Friday, the main cryptocurrency recouped some of its losses. The short-term predictions turned out to be quite clear.

At the same time, the mid- and long-term forecasts remain uncertain.

Last week, some analysts unveiled their predictions about bitcoin's jump to $300 thousand. Today, Mike McGlone, an analyst at Bloomberg, has also joined this group of experts, saying that bitcoin may rally up to $400 thousand this year.

McGlone noted that bitcoin could be considered as a safe-haven asset. That is why institutional investors are becoming more and more interested in this asset. As a result, the funds inflow is really possible. Thus, if bitcoin becomes a safe-haven asset, it will have all chances to reach $400 thousand.

Various funds also foresee a rosy future for bitcoin. Catherine Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, said that the market capitalization of $1 trillion was just bitcoin's first step towards its future rise. It is just the beginning of the bullish trend. The fact is that supply of the tokens is limited, whereas demand is rising amid significant interest from institutional investors. Such big players are trying to protect their assets from inflationary risks, buying bitcoins in the long-term perspective.

Soros Fund has also shown its interest in bitcoin. Company's Chief Investment Officer Dawn Fitzpatrick emphasizes that now investors do not consider bitcoin as a risky asset. Moreover, the fund supposes that this asset could provide us with wonderful opportunities.

According to Fitzpatrick, the main cryptocurrency is now going through a period of "growing up". Meanwhile, the large amount of the US dollar liquidity, which has been pouring into the economy thanks to the efforts of the US Fed and fiscal support, is becoming one of the reasons for higher demand. Large players are concerned about a possible drop in the US dollar. Besides, they may consider the main cryptocurrency as an asset that is easy to store and move.

However, there is the other side of the coin. The traditional financial system as well as central banks and regulators will hardly give bitcoin freedom. India has already imposed some restrictions. Some analysts suppose that in the US, such measures could also be introduced.

At the same time, the global economic recovery after the virus-induced crisis may calm down those who were severely buying bitcoin in an attempt to avoid risks. Thus, some experts believe that the bitcoin price may drop as low as $20,000.

On the one hand, institutional investors are becoming more interested in bitcoin as a possible safe-haven asset. They are investing funds in an attempt to protect them from inflationary risks. On the other hand, bitcoin's rise could be capped by legislative and regulatory measures, it is extremely volatile, and traders may lose appetite to risk. That is why it is too difficult to make long-term forecasts. However, even amid uncertainties it is possible to use a technical analysis to trade.

At the end of the last week, the price did not reach the 61.8 Fibonacci Expansion level. It recovered and consolidated above the next horizontal line that is the 100 Fibonacci Expansion level. The BTC/USD pair approached the previous all-time high logged on February 21. This level of $58,340.66 (a red dotted line) also acts as resistance. The next resistance level is $59,517.79 (a blue dotted line). If bitcoin manages to break the range of $58,340.66-$59,517.79, it will have all chances to reach a new all-time high. Traders are recommended to remain cautious.

According to the alternative scenario, the BTC/USD pair may fail to break the resistance level of $58,340.66 (a red dotted line). In this case, the price will return to the 100 Fibonacci Expansion level and then to $59,517.79 (a blue dotted line).