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EUR/USD 5M
The EUR/USD pair still traded in a very calm manner on April 13. The pair spent the last five days in a very narrow horizontal channel, which is more visible on higher timeframes than the 5-minute one. For example, on the hour. The approximate boundaries of this channel were the levels 1.1862 and 1.1920. And, most likely, the pair would have remained inside this channel, if not for the inflation report, which was published in America in the afternoon. The technical picture on the 5-minute timeframe was not the most attractive. Firstly, it is flat for most of the day, and secondly, only one signal formed during the day. The Asian trading session turned out to be quite active this time, while the pair's quotes fell by 30 points during the night. But with the opening of the European trading session, a new round of flat began. The price did not even approach the key lines and extreme levels throughout the first half of the day. Therefore, no signal was generated. The ZEW Institute's business sentiment index was published in the European Union in the morning, which turned out to be significantly worse than forecasts, but, as we can see, traders ignored this report (figure "1" in the chart). With the arrival of the US session, the movement became much stronger. Mainly due to the US inflation report for March. The main indicator increased to 2.6% Y/Y, and the base indicator to 1.6% Y/Y. In both cases, the forecasts were lower, and the previous values were much lower. Thus, US inflation has accelerated very much. As we mentioned yesterday, this could cause a completely unpredictable reaction from traders. Most market participants considered that such a strong acceleration of the consumer price index is a harbinger of an even stronger acceleration in the future, which will be very difficult to stop. Therefore, the US dollar fell under a sell-off immediately after this report was published (figure "2" in the chart). It was when this report was released that the only signal of the day appeared in the form of the pair surpassing the extreme level of 1.1915. However, we recommend being cautious once these important reports are released, so this signal should be ignored.
EUR/USD 1H
Yesterday, we saw that the euro/dollar pair tried its best to stay in the horizontal channel on the hourly timeframe, in which it had spent five days before. However, only the inflation report managed to stop the flat. In recent days, an upward trend line has even formed in addition to the one that already exists. Thus, a double upward trend was formed for the euro/dollar pair. The rebound from the trend line also helped the pair in resuming its growth, although, of course, this is more of an accident, since the US inflation report was the key. European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos and ECB President Christine Lagarde are scheduled to speak in the European Union on Wednesday. Meanwhile, we also have a speech by Federal Reserve Jerome Powell in America, as well as the release of the Fed's economic review, the "Beige Book". Therefore, traders will also have something to pay attention to today. In general, we still recommend trading from important levels and lines that are plotted on the hourly timeframe. The nearest important level is 1.1915, as well as the Kijun-sen line(1.1899) and the trend line. Signals can be rebounds and once levels and lines are surpassed. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price moves 15-20 points in the right direction. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false.
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair.
COT report
Recall that the EUR/USD pair increased by 50 points during the last reporting week (March 30 - April 5). However, what does the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports reveal about the outlook for the currency pair? Let us recall that all the latest reports indicated a significant decrease in the number of buy contracts from the non-commercial group of traders, which, we recall, is the most important category of participants in the foreign exchange market. So, over the past five weeks, non-commercial traders have closed approximately 35,000 Buy contracts (longs) and opened about 44,000 Sell contracts (shorts). Thus, in the last five weeks alone, the net position for professional players has decreased by almost 80,000 contracts. Basically, the second indicator in the chart perfectly shows how the net position of major players has changed recently. This suggests that the mood of professional traders was becoming more bearish or, better to say, less bullish, because the total number of Buy contracts still exceeded the total number of Sell contracts. But if it was a threefold gap in numbers a couple of months ago, now the ratio is 187,000-127,000. Thus, if we only take the COT reports into account, then we can conclude that the upward trend is over and we are waiting for the dollar to strengthen further. The latest COT report, which came out on April 9, has gotten boring. The non-commercial group has closed 7,700 Buy contracts and 6,700 Sell contracts. Thus, the mood of the major players practically did not change over the last reporting week. Take note of the fact that a strong inflation and money supply in the United States can cause the dollar to fall, and this will not even depend on market participants. The money supply will become even bigger, and the dollar supply will increase, so even if traders don't sell the dollar, it can still fall.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
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