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To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:
In yesterday's forecasts, I focused on the 1.1953 level and advised you to act based on it. Let's take a look at the 5 minute chart and talk about what happened. The data on changes in the volume of industrial production in the eurozone did not significantly weigh on the euro, as the actual value exceeded economists' forecasts. After several unsuccessful attempts to fall below the 1.1953 range, it is clear how a false breakout is forming, which leads to a good entry point into long positions in continuing the bull market. After some time, the bears tried to pull the pair below 1.1953 - and again to no avail, which confirms the solid position of buyers. A similar situation occurred during the US session, when buyers managed to defend the 1.1953 level for the third time, which led to a more active growth to the area of a high like 1.1987.
Yesterday's speeches from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde did not have much effect on the bullish direction of the pair. Today, we will receive important data on the consumer price index of the eurozone countries in the first half of the day, which may strengthen the euro's position against the dollar. Therefore, the bulls' initial task is to protect support at 1.1953. Forming a false breakout there (by analogy with yesterday's long positions, which I discussed above) will lead to creating a signal for you to open long positions in continuing the bullish trend. In this case, we can count on a breakthrough and consolidation above resistance at 1.1987. Testing this level from top to bottom creates another entry point into long positions with the prospect of returning to 1.2047, where I recommend taking profits. The next target will be the high at 1.2109. If bulls are not active in the support area of 1.1953, and there are moving averages, playing on the side of buyers: then I recommend holding back from long positions until the test of the larger area of 1.1920, where you can buy EUR/USD immediately on a rebound, counting on an upward correction of 20- 25 points within the day. The next support is seen around 1.1880.
To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:
The bears failed to pull the pair under the 1.1953 level and only showed themselves after the pair renewed another high around 1.1987. The EUR/USD pair's succeeding direction will depend on this level. The bears' initial task for the first half of the day is to regain control of support at 1.1953. Very disappointing news on inflation in the eurozone countries will push the pair to settle below 1.1953, and a test of this level from the bottom up can create a point of entry into short positions, which will increase the pressure on the pair and push it to the area of a low like 1.1920. In case the pair surpasses this range, you can continue to sell the euro in hopes that it would return to support at 1.1880, where I recommend taking profits. If the euro is still in demand this morning, and traders are pleased with data on the consumer price index, then it is best to hold back from short positions until a false breakout forms in the resistance area of 1.1987. You can sell EUR/USD on a rebound from a new large high like 1.2047, counting on a downward correction of 15-20 points within the day.
The indicators of long and short positions underwent a number of changes in the Commitment of Traders (COT) report for April 6, it revealed that the indicators of long and short positions significantly increased, which indicates that the bears are still in control of the market. Long positions continued to decline, which led to another drop in the positive delta. Last week we received a number of fundamental reports, but the International Monetary Fund's meeting grabbed more attention, at which a number of agreements were reached to extend the debt deferral program until the end of this year and an initiative was created to support the poor countries most affected by the coronavirus. Last week, there was also a lot of talk about the bureaucratic delay in the implementation of the EU Recovery Fund, which limits the euro's growth potential in the near future. For this reason, the market remains on the side of the sellers of risky assets in the medium term, which may lead to forming a succeeding downward trend. Investors expect the United States to be the first to start raising interest rates, which makes the dollar more attractive. This week's inflation data could seriously affect the balance of power in the market in favor of dollar bulls. One can expect an improvement in the economic outlook for the eurozone only when restrictions are lifted and the service sector is restored. This can also return the medium-term trend of strengthening EUR/USD and push it to an upward trend.
The COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions declined from 194,764 to 192,230, while short non-commercial positions rose from 121,024 to 124,708. As a result, the total non-commercial net position continued to decline and reached 67,522 against 73,739 a week earlier. But the weekly closing price rose to 1.1816 against 1.1768 last week.
Indicator signals:
Moving averages
Trading is carried out above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates that the euro will continue to rise.
Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.
Bollinger Bands
Surpassing the upper border of the indicator in the area of 1.1987 will lead to a new wave of growth for the pair. Surpassing the lower border of the indicator around 1.1953 will increase pressure on the euro.
Description of indicators
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