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GBP/USD 5M
The GBP/USD pair resumed its upward movement last Friday, although the EUR/USD pair continued to be in a flat all day. So now we draw your attention to the uncorrelation of the two major currency pairs. And this despite the fact that now there is not much news coming from the UK and the European Union that could lead to a different movement of the main pairs. We still believe that a speculative factor is acting on the pound, which keeps the quotes from significantly falling. The price showed a desire to fall during last Friday's Asian session, and at the beginning of the European trading session it dropped into the Kijun-Sen line and the extremum level of 1.3724. There was a rather subtle moment here, since the Kijun-sen line was broken, that is, a sell signal was formed. However, the 1.3724 level was very close to it, only 14 points, from which the probability of a rebound remained. In general, the best thing to do in this situation would be to wait for the 1.3724 level to be reached and then you can make a decision. There was a clear rebound from the 1.3724 level, which certainly should have been worked out with a long position, which eventually brought 61 points of profit, as the price rose to the Senkou Span B line. Then the second slippery moment followed, since the quotes initially bounced off the Senkou Span B line, and then it surpassed it. Here traders could open a short position, which eventually closed at a loss of 13-14 points. However, it was a very difficult moment here as well, because the extremum level 1.3807 was just above the Senkou Span B line, and you could wait for it to be reached before opening new long positions. In turn, there was a false rebound from the 1.3807 level, followed by a rebound from the Senkou Span B line and being able to surpass 1.3807, which brought another 15-20 points of profit. However, due to several incomprehensible situations that could be interpreted in different ways, the total profit decreases to 30-40 points per day. We can admit that the day was really very difficult to work out.
GBP/USD 1H
The technical picture is a bit more clear on the hourly timeframe. First, an upward trend is also visible, which is now accompanied by an upward trend line. Secondly, the price has surpassed the important level of 1.3807, from which it bounced at least twice earlier. So now we have an upward trend at our disposal, albeit very weak and uncertain, so we can count on further growth. No major reports released in the United States or the United Kingdom last Friday. The situation will be the same on Monday. But, as you can see, if the euro/dollar pair stood still on Friday, the pound/dollar pair traded very vigorously and went from the low to the high of the day at 125 points. Thus, trading can be quite active as well on Monday. Moreover, in the longer term, the "swing" remains, and the "swing" does not really need a fundamental background in order to move. It is very important to trade from levels and lines at a time when there is no clear trend. Signals will be generated once the quote has bounced from them and surpassed them. The most important levels for today are 1.3807 and 1.3846. Senkou Span B (1.3794) and Kijun-sen (1.3765) lines are also important, and signals can also form around them. As before, you are advised to set the Stop Loss level at breakeven when the price passes 20 points in the right direction. The nearest level/line is always used as targets (exceptions - if the target is too close to the signal).
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair.
COT report
The GBP/USD pair fell by 160 points during the last reporting week (April 6-12). The chart clearly shows how strong the current downward correction is! Recall that professional traders have been actively reducing both buy and sell orders over the past 6-8 weeks. On February 23, around 69,000 were opened for the first and around 34,000 for the latter, then as of April 6, 44,000 Buy-contracts (longs) were opened, and 25,700 for Sell (shorts). Thus, in general, the ratio between longs and shorts has not changed. Only the number of contracts that were opened by the non-commercial group has changed. Hence the conclusion: the bullish mood persists among professional traders, but in general, fewer and fewer speculators want to deal with the "unbalanced" pound. Basically, the behavior of non-commercial traders is shown by the indicators under the main chart. The first one, which shows the change in the net positions of the three categories of traders, shows a constant change in direction, constant intersections of lines. And this is despite the fact that there has been a steady upward trend in the last 12-13 months, which does not cause any doubt. It turns out that there is a trend and it is strong, but the most important category of traders does not buy the pound in huge amounts. Moreover, the second indicator shows that non-commercial traders have been increasing their purchases and sales in the last six months. That is, there was no clear bullish mood. This only proves the fact that the pound and the euro grew in the last year on the factor of increasing the money supply in the United States. That is, big players traded in accordance with their interests and goals, but their deals were blocked by the infusion of trillions of dollars into the US economy. Well, in the reporting week, non-commercial traders began to re-open buy contracts (longs) at around 7,200. Less than a thousand sales contracts were opened. It seems that the major players are starting to believe in the growth of the "bitcoin-like" pound.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group.
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