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EUR/USD 5M
The EUR/USD pair started an upward movement on Monday after the pair collapsed last Friday afternoon. Markets have finally calmed down about the Federal Reserve meeting, during which, we recall, no particularly important decisions were made. Nevertheless, traders were actively buying the US dollar for two days. Now this movement has ended or paused. It is very interesting what will happen next with the dollar. We believe that nothing has changed for it globally, so we should expect a strong decline. We analyze the reasons in detail in our fundamental articles. Several trading signals were generated that should have been worked out and which could bring profit to traders. Let's take a look at them. At the very beginning of the European trading session, the quotes crossed the extremum level of 1.1861, which served as a buy signal. This signal did not bring profit to traders, since the pair's quotes went up by about 15 points, which was enough to set Stop Loss to zero, after which they returned to the level of 1.1861. They came back and bounced off it again, forming the second buy signal, which should also be worked out. This time the price headed for the extremum level of 1.1915 and reached it in the middle of the US session. Thus, the long position brought around 43 points of profit. The pair has been around the level of 1.1915 for about an hour, and did not form a clear signal, therefore, new positions should not have been opened near this level. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde delivered two speeches on Monday. These are marked with numbers "1" and "2" in the chart. However, as we can see, there was no reaction to them, and there were no other important events during the day.
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. 22nd of June. The Fed and the ECB will continue to put pressure on their currencies.
Review of the GBP/USD pair. 22nd of June. The Bank of England meeting may cause the opposite reaction from the Fed meeting in the markets.
EUR/USD 1H
The euro/dollar pair also began an upward correction on the hourly timeframe, failing to surpass the level of 1.1851. We draw your attention to some extremum levels on this timeframe that have been moved, while others have been removed, so you should use new levels today. So far, we can say that the downward trend continues, but there is still no trend line or channel to support it. Moreover, the entire move by 270 points looks somehow random and does not fit into the overall technical picture. On Tuesday, we still recommend trading from important levels and lines. The closest important levels at this time are 1.1800, 1.1851, 1.1924, 1.1950 and 1.1988, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.2154) and Kijun-sen (1.1955) lines. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. Signals can be rebounds or breakthroughs of these levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price moves 15-20 points in the right direction. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is set to speak in America, but there is nothing in the European Union on Tuesday. His speech will take place late in the evening, so during the day the macroeconomic background will be absent, and the pair will be able to calmly continue to trade on pure technique.
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair.
COT report
The EUR/USD pair fell by 70 points during the last reporting week (June 8-14). The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed that bullish sentiment has slightly weakened among the major players, but these slight changes in the latest reports do not affect the overall picture of the state of affairs in any way. For example, the first indicator in the chart above continues to indicate a bullish trend and the fact that non-commercial traders continue to build long positions over the medium term. Of course, the last three trading days were not included in the last COT report, so it would be better to draw a conclusion after the next report. Nevertheless, based on the information that we already have at our disposal, we cannot conclude that professional traders have begun to look towards selling the euro. In addition, it should be noted that the new COT report was not released on Friday, therefore, it should be expected a little later. Perhaps it will show a serious weakening of the bullish sentiment, but so far we don't have such information. Accordingly, you need to wait for the new COT report and see what information it contains. So far, we note that the total number of open Buy-contracts (longs) for non-commercial traders is twice the total number of Sell-contracts (shorts). The green and red lines of the first indicator move away from each other, and the histogram of the second indicator rises. All this speaks, at least, of the preservation of the bullish mood.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
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