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GBP/USD 5M
The GBP/USD pair did not move very actively on July 30. The UK and the US did not publish any macroeconomic reports. We mean important data, there were no other events and news either. Thus, traders did not even have much to react to during the day. In addition, the price did not cross important levels and lines during the day, therefore, not a single strong trading signal was generated during the day. There were only two weak signals in the middle and at the end of the US trading session, when the price bounced off the extreme level of 1.3898. But they, of course, should not have been worked out. Thus, Friday turned out to be a very boring day for traders. Therefore, the majority simply took part of the profit on previously opened long positions, which probably led to a decrease in the pair's quotes. In general, we continue to expect a continuation of the upward movement, but, probably, this will not happen before the meeting of the Bank of England.
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. August 2. Preview of the week. The US dollar is waiting and hoping to see strong reports from ADP and NonFarm Payrolls.
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. August 2. The Bank of England is unlikely to surprise traders with anything. All attention to the US labor market.
GBP/USD 1H
The pound/dollar pair has settled below the upward trend line on the hourly timeframe, so the upward trend has temporarily reversed, and the downward correction is likely to continue on Monday and Tuesday. Basically, this week there will be one significant event for the pound/dollar pair - the Bank of England meeting. Traders will probably not force events at the beginning of the week and take unnecessary risks. At the same time, the pound does not stand in one place even when there are no macroeconomic reports. In technical terms, we continue to draw your attention to the most important levels and recommend trading from them: 1.3859, 1.3898, 1.3981, 1.4000. Senkou Span B (1.3734) and Kijun-sen (1.3874) lines can also be sources of signals. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss level at breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. On Monday, the UK will release a PMI for the manufacturing sector, and the US will release a similar ISM. However, we believe that these reports will not have any impact on the pound/dollar pair.
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair.
COT report
The GBP/USD pair fell by 200 points during the last reporting week (July 13-19). The data from the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) reports fully support this development: the net position of non-commercial traders is falling, and the pound is also dropping. Thus, everything seems to be logical. However, the first indicator in the chart clearly shows that the upward trend is not ending, but that a new downward trend is about to begin. The green and red lines crossed, which already means a bearish mood of traders. Let us remind you that the green line is the net position of the "non-commercial" group, and the red line is the net position of the "commercial" group. Consequently, at this time, professional players have already opened a larger number of contracts for selling (short) than for buying (longs). And this suggests that major players believe in the further fall of the British currency. But here the same factor also works as for the euro/dollar pair. Trillions of dollars continue to flow into the American economy, which is why its rapid recovery is achieved. However, at the same time, the money supply is growing, inflation is rising, which depreciates the dollar much faster than the sales of the major players of the pound. Consequently, we are fully justified in expecting that the pound will also start to rise in price again, simply because inflating money supply in the United States is more global. During the reporting week, major players immediately opened 11,600 contracts for sale and closed 1,100 contracts for buy. Their net position decreased immediately by 12.7 thousand. Now they already have more open sell positions than buy ones. However, on all these actions of large players, the pound barely managed to get to the last local low, which was formed even when the mood of traders was bullish.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
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