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Yesterday was quite an interesting day for trading. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and figure out the entry points. Yesterday, in the first half of the day, I paid attention to the level 1.3717 and advised you to make decisions on entering the market from it. It is clearly seen that from the first attempt we did not reach the level of 1.3717 - accordingly, no entry signals were generated. And only by the middle of the European session did forming a false breakout in the 1.3717 area lead to creating an entry point for opening long positions. As a result, the upward movement was more than 25 points. A similar story happened in the second half of the day - the bulls defended 1.3717 with all due responsibility, creating an excellent entry point to long positions there.
Before examining the technical picture of the pound, let's take a look at what happened in the futures market. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for October 12 revealed a reduction in both short and long positions, but there were more of the former, which led to a slight recovery in the negative net position. Despite rather active attempts by the bears at the beginning of that week to resist the bullish trend, bulls turned out to be stronger, which led to further growth of the pound against the US dollar. Reducing a number of problems with disruptions in supply chains that shook the pound earlier this month, are now gradually returning to the market players who are betting on further strengthening of risky assets. Constant speeches and statements by representatives of the Bank of England that it is necessary to take inflationary pressures more seriously, also add confidence to the pound bulls. The minutes of the central bank meeting last week confirmed the BoE's intentions to take seriously the option of raising interest rates during the November meeting - a bullish signal for GBP/USD. Therefore, the only problem that stands in the way of the pound bulls is the US Federal Reserve. Although they are not going to raise interest rates, they are also heading for tightening monetary policy. However, the British pound in these conditions looks much more preferable. The COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions declined from 48,137 to 46,794, while short non-commercials dropped from 68,155 to 58,773, which partially reduced the advantage of sellers over buyers. As a result, the non-commercial net position amounted to 11,979 against -20,018. The closing price of GBP/USD remained almost unchanged for the week: 1.3591 against 1.3606.
Today there are no important fundamental statistics, but the Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey will speak. Traders will look for any hints of tightening monetary policy in the near future, which could lead to new long positions on the pound at current highs. In this case, the bulls will target the resistance at 1.3770, which coincides with the previous week's high. Only a breakthrough and reverse test of this range from top to bottom will generate a signal to buy GBP/USD, which will resume the upward trend and push the pair even higher - to the 1.3805 area. A test of this area will be evidence of the continuation of the bullish trend, however, for greater confidence, you need to consolidate higher. Breakdown of 1.3805 will open a direct path to the major resistance at 1.3839, where I recommend taking profits. If the pair is under pressure in the first half of the day, I advise you not to rush into long positions. Bulls have the important task to protect the support at 1.3723, which they did an excellent job yesterday. Only a false breakout there, by analogy with what I discussed above, forms a good entry point to buy. Otherwise, the optimal scenario for opening long positions will be a test of the next support at 1.3676 - it is also best to wait there for a false breakout to form. I advise you to watch long positions of GBP/USD immediately for a rebound only from a low like 1.3632, counting on an upward correction of 25-30 points within the day.
The bears did their best to regain control over the market yesterday, but it did not work out very well. Today they need to think about how to defend the previous week's highs, the breakthrough of which will lead to the resumption of the bullish trend. There is no need to rely on the fundamental data on the UK today, therefore, only a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.3770 will lead to creating a signal to sell GBP/USD with the goal of falling to support at 1.3723, where the moving averages are, playing on the side of bulls. A breakthrough and reverse test of this level from the bottom up will form a signal to open short positions with the goal of pulling down the pair to a low like 1.3676, and then to update the support at 1.3632, where I recommend taking profits. In case the pound grows further in the first half of the day and the bears are not active at 1.3770, only a false breakdown in the area of the next resistance at 1.3805 will be a signal to sell GBP/USD. I advise you to open short positions in the pound immediately on a rebound from the high of 1.3839, or even higher - around 1.3878, counting on the pair's rebound down by 20-25 points within the day.
EUR/USD: plan for the European session on October 19. COT reports. Euro bulls have taken 1.1637 and are aiming for new monthly highs
Indicator signals:
Moving averages
Trading is carried out above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the likelihood of continued growth of the pound.
Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.
Bollinger Bands
A breakthrough of the upper border of the indicator in the area of 1.3770 will lead to a new wave of growth of the pound. Surpassing the lower border of the indicator in the area of 1.3715 will increase the pressure on the pair.
Description of indicators
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