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Analysis of positions and tips for trading the pound sterling
The pound sterling tested the level of 1.3230 in the first half of the day when the MACD indicator was far from the zero line. It limited the downward movement of the pair. As a result, I decided to miss the sell signal. A bit later, the pair made a second attempt to break this level. At that moment, the MACD indicator was in the oversold area, which led to the implementation of scenario No. 2 for the purchase of the pound sterling. The pair managed to add 30 pips. When testing the 1.3261 level, the MACD indicator went up far from the zero mark, which limited the upward movement of the pair. After some time, the pair tried again to test 1.3261. The MACD indicator was already in the overbought area. It led to the implementation of scenario No. 2 for the sale of the pound sterling. The pair lost about 30 pips.
Yesterday, the pound sterling declined sharply following the publication of the stress tests of UK banks and the BoE's Financial Stability Report. The speech of Andrew Bailey, the BoE governor, also did not facilitate its rise. Now, the pound sterling is hovering at the levels crucial for the bearish market. Today, the economic calendar contains important macroeconomic statistics such as the UK initial jobless claims report. Investors are sure to take notice of this data. If the reading drops, the pound sterling is likely to advance. Besides, analysts expect a drop in the unemployment rate, which is also bullish for the GBP/USD pair. The UK average earnings report is a leading indicator. It reflects how households will estimate their spending in the future. The second half of the day should be more interesting as the US will publish the producer price index. The latest inflation report may force the Fed to taper asset purchases faster than planned. If so, the US dollar is sure to climb. Traders are likely to open long positions on the US dollar following the publication of the NFIB small business optimism index. It will drag down the pound sterling.
Entry points to open long positions
Scenario No. 1: one can open long positions on the pound sterling today when the pair reaches 1.3227 (green line on the chart) with the target level of 1.3269 (thicker green line on the chart). When the price approaches 1.3269, it is recommended to lock in profits and open short positions, counting on a downward movement of 15-20 pips from the level). The pound sterling may also assert strength today if the initial jobless claim report turns out to be positive. Apart from this report, there are no drivers for its rise. Important! Before opening long positions, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and it has just started to grow from it.
Scenario No.2: it is also possible to buy the pound sterling today if the price reaches 1.3199. At this moment, the MACD indicator should be in the oversold area. It will limit the downward movement of the pair. It may also trigger an upward reversal. Therefore, the pair may grow to 1.3227 and 1.3269.
Entry points to open short positions
Scenario No.1: one may consider opening short positions today only if the pound sterling breaks through the level of 1.3199 (the red line on the chart). It may trigger a rapid decline of the pair. I recommend locking into profits when the quotes reach the target level of 1.3160. Open long positions, counting on an upward movement of 15-20 pips from this level. If the UK jobs data is weak, the pound may face strong bearish pressure. Besides, the prospects of monetary policy tightening in the US are quite high, while the Bank of England's stance on monetary policy remains vague. Important! Before opening short positions, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero level and it has just begun to decline from it.
Scenario No.2: it is also possible to sell the pound sterling today if the price reaches 1.3227. At this moment, the MACD indicator should be in the overbought area. It will limit the upward movement of the pair and lead to a downward reversal. So, the pair is likely to tumble to 1.3199 and 1.3160.
Description of the chart:
The thin green line shows the entry point to open long positions.
The thick green line is the estimated price where you can place a Take profit order or lock in profits by yourself as the price is unlikely to rise above this level.
The thin red line shows the entry point to open short positions.
The thick red line is the estimated price where you can place a Take profit order or lock in profits by yourself as the price is unlikely to drop below this level.
The MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to pay attention to overbought and oversold zones.
Important. Novice traders need to make decisions very carefully when entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market as the market is quite volatile. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place Stop Loss orders to minimize losses. Without placing Stop Loss orders, you can blow the entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use money management, but trade in large volumes.
Remember that for successful trading it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, following the example of the one I presented above. Relying on spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy of an intraday trader.
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