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US stock index futures traded slightly lower on Monday morning after the S&P index showed its best week since January 1, 2022. This was supported partially by quarterly earnings reports and a strong US jobs report for January of this year which has exceeded expectations of economists. Dow Jones index futures contracts decreased by 51 points or 0.16%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures were down only slightly.
As for Friday's regular trading session, the S&P and Nasdaq Composite rose, showing the fifth positive session in the last six trading days. The Dow index fell by 0.06% but managed to show an increase of 1.05% for the week.
Investors will continue to monitor the reports to be released this week, although their volume is gradually declining. Among the Dow Jones components, Disney and Coca-Cola are of interest. Amgen, Take-Two Interactive, and On Semiconductor will release their statements today.
At the moment, 56% of S&P 500 companies have released their quarterly earnings reports, with 79% beating estimates and 77% beating earnings expectations. Inflation news will be more important. The US Department of Labor on Thursday will release data on the Consumer Price Index for January. Inflation is expected to increase by 7.2% on a yearly basis, which is the fastest hike since February 1982.
Against this backdrop, the US stock market is preparing for a response from the Federal Reserve. At the moment, markets are estimating a roughly 35% chance that the Federal Reserve will raise its key short-term interest rate by half a percentage point, or 50 basis points, as early as March 2022.
As for government bond yields, they were almost unchanged on Monday after rising sharply on the back of an unexpectedly strong January 2022 US nonfarm payrolls report. The yield on the 10-year bond is currently around 1.92%. According to the US Labor Department, 467,000 jobs were created in January, far more than economists had expected.
As for the premarket, there is high activity in Peloton stock, which rose on Monday after reports that Amazon and Nike may buy the manufacturer of interactive fitness equipment. The stock is already up by 25%.
Spotify slumped by 1.3% after the company said it disapproved of scandalous podcast host Joe Rogan for his racist statements, but would not remove his podcasts from the website. A number of American and non-American artists have previously asked Spotify to remove their music in protest against Rogan.
As for last week's gainers and fallers: Amazon stock jumped by 13.5% on Friday, and Snap stock skyrocketed by 58.8%. Facebook-Meta plummeted by 26% on Thursday after its quarterly report.
In general, investors continue to sell news and the market becomes more selective. There will be no more new cheap money, so high volatility will gradually return to normal. For now, however, the bear market will remain so, as it needs to find a firm bottom before the next jump to new all-time highs.
As for the technical picture of the S&P500
Today we may see another decline to $4,449, which may lead to increased demand and an attempt by buyers of the index to reverse the market and break through $4,536, which they failed to do last Friday. That would take the pair down to $4,598. A breakthrough that range would open a path to $4,665 and $4,722. If the price falls below $4,449, the pressure may return very quickly. In that case, we might see a decrease to $4,378.
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