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GBP/USD 5M
Yesterday, the GBP/USD currency pair continued to move as unsightly as possible for traders. Despite the fact that the movement was not the weakest and, one might say, even trending (we are talking about an intraday trend), the pair could still not show such a movement that was comparable to the good times. This isn't the best time for trading. There was not a single important publication in the UK and the US on Thursday. The leaders of the two countries continued to comment on the Ukrainian-Russian conflict, which could lead to serious consequences for the whole world. But, first of all, for Ukraine and Russia themselves. Ukraine could seriously suffer in all aspects in the event of a war with Russia. "Tough" sanctions may be imposed against Russia, up to disconnecting it from Swift and freezing the Nord Stream-2 project. So far, it is completely unclear who benefits from this conflict. Probably those countries that will not participate directly in it.
As for trading signals, as many as four were formed on Thursday, and two of them can be called good. The first signal was formed an hour before the opening of the European trading session, when the price bounced off the critical line. With the opening of the European session, traders could have time to "jump on the train", since by that time the price had gone not far from the point of signal formation. A few hours later, a second similar signal was formed, so traders had the opportunity to open long positions again. Later, the price went up about 60 points, breaking the level of 1.3609 along the way, and then bouncing off it five times from above. Therefore, all the signals of the day were for long positions. But there should have been one or two deals opened. As a result, it was possible to make a profit of about 40 points, and the deal, since the sell signal was not formed, had to be closed manually later in the evening. As a result, it turns out one could make money using the Ichimoku system.
COT report
The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report on the British pound showed a sharp increase in the bullish mood among the "non-commercial" group. During the week, professional traders opened 15,000 long positions and such changes are significant for the pound. It is not surprising that the major players behaved this way last week, since it was then that the Bank of England announced its decision to raise the key rate by 0.25%. However, the overall picture of the state of things provided by the COT reports now speaks of utter uncertainty. Let's start with the fact that even after the net position of large players has grown by 15,000, their mood is called bearish, since the total number of open long positions per pound is less than the total number of open short ones. Moreover, the chart above clearly shows that the green and red lines of the first indicator, which display the net positions of the two most important groups of traders "commercial" and "non-commercial" are now again near zero. And finding the net position indicator near the zero mark means that the number of long and short positions is approximately the same. Moreover, recent changes in net positions do not give grounds to conclude that the trend has ended now or a new one is starting. Roughly speaking, the mood of the players is changing too quickly, so it is impossible to talk about any long-term trends now.
We recommend to familiarize yourself with:
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. February 18. False alarm. At least, that's what the markets thought.
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. February 18. The FOMC minutes turned out to be a "dummy".
Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on February 18. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trading transactions.
GBP/USD 1H
On the hourly timeframe, the technical picture is such that no comments are even required to describe it. This is a "swing". Or a roller coaster. One way or another, but such movements are extremely difficult to work out. Moreover, there is no trend now, there is no trend line, there is no channel. Therefore, traders still do not have any benchmarks at their disposal, except for lines and levels. We highlight the following important levels on February 18: 1.3489, 1.3609, 1.3643, 1.3667, 1.3741. The Senkou Span B (1.3565) and Kijun-sen (1.3560) lines can also be signal sources. Signals can be "bounces" and "breakthroughs" of these levels and lines. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss level to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also support and resistance levels in the chart that can be used to take profits on transactions. A retail sales report is set to be published in the UK on Friday, but given how the market reacted to all macroeconomic statistics this week, we do not believe that this report is capable of provoking a reaction by more than 20 points. Nothing interesting to expect from America today. Most of the day you will have to closely follow the geopolitical news.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
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