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Bitcoin firmly fixed below $38,429.77, which opened the way to $34,196.86. A short-term scenario looks bearish.
Meanwhile, the opinions of crypto experts sound mixed. Is this an attempt to clutch at straws or true optimism?
Experienced trader Ton Weiss warns bitcoin traders that the asset risks trigger another sell-off.
In a new strategy session, Weiss told his subscribers that bitcoin price action and technical indicators are all flashing bearish signals.
"We are all below the moving average... The 200-day moving average is about to start declining. This is not a good sign... This is a bad looking daily chart. If this candle closes below $38,500, it is too bad. A decline to $25,000 looks somewhat realistic... It is likely to have a snapback to the 50-day moving averages. We could double bottom again with $36,500 and then it could be a disaster from there."
Although Weiss is bearish on Bitcoin in the short and medium-term, the analyst still believes that BTC may eventually rise above its all-time highs driven by macroeconomic factors.
"In a world of inflation, in a world of tyrannical governments confiscating your money, bitcoin will eventually break this double top and rise above the double top with a vengeance. Remember that the longer bitcoin stays below $65,000, Moving uphill would be equally violent. For me, this is largely a fact. When is this going to happen? I don't know."
Nevertheless, not everyone agrees with the bearish outlook. Plan B, a noted analyst, urges traders to ignore the current decline. He relies on the signal of the 200-week moving average, arguing that as long as it is rising, the long-term trend remains bullish.
Locally, the market sentiment looks extremely bearish. The Short-Term Holder Short-Term Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR) indicates this. It shows the ratio of short-term outputs to earnings. Glassnode notes that it looks bearish.
Glassnode's analysis points out that SOPR is currently trading below a value of one, which is the cut-off for the majority of STH (short-term holders) to be in profit. In the current market, there have been massive capitulations.
According to Glassnode, this indicates that short-term holders are selling bitcoin at the buy price, closing positions just to break even and not lose their money. The drop in price spooked them and triggered a wave of closings.
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