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The EUR/USD pair did not show anything special on Thursday. During the day, the pair was confidently between the levels of 1.0874 and 1.0945, but at the same time showed quite decent volatility. The problem was that the trend movement was again absent. Thus, it was very inconvenient to trade the pair, and there were few trading signals (which is even good in a flat). Also, there were no important macroeconomic or fundamental events or news during the day. Thus, traders had nothing to react to during the day. Only one report on retail sales was published in the European Union, and no one was interested. There was a report on jobless claims in the US, which also did not interest anyone. Therefore, everyone was focused on geopolitics, but there was little news there either. Of the essentials, we can only note the adoption of a resolution by the European Parliament on the imposition of an embargo on oil, gas and coal from Russia, as well as the exclusion of Russia from the UN Human Rights Council.
The only trading signal of the day was formed in the middle of the European trading session, when the price rebounded from the extreme level of 1.0874. After that, the pair managed to go up about 55 points and just barely got to the level of 1.0945. Thus, traders had to close this trade manually, but the question is, where did they do it? In any case, it was possible to get 10-20 points of profit. No more trading signals were generated during the day.
The latest, Commitment of Traders (COT) report turned out to be as neutral as possible and did not show any serious changes in the mood of professional traders. The non-commercial group closed about 7,000 contracts long positions and 4,500 short positions during the reporting week. The net position of this group decreased by 2,500. At the same time, the total number of long positions still exceeds the total number of short positions of major players. That is, their mood is still bullish, although the euro has been falling for 14-15 months. Earlier, we have already drawn attention to the fact that in January and February, major players increased longs on the euro currency. In theory, this should have led to the growth of the currency itself. However, the euro did not show anything other than the usual slight correction. Since it was in January-February, when the geopolitical situation in the world and in Europe began to deteriorate sharply, we assume that at that time the demand for the US dollar was growing very much. That is why there was an increase in the euro/dollar pair, despite the fact that the demand for euros among market participants was also growing. The demand for the dollar just grew faster and stronger. Now the factor of geopolitics remains in force, therefore, with the bullish mood of the major players, it is quite possible to expect a new fall in the European currency. To some extent, this is a paradox, but a paradox explained by the current circumstances that have developed in the world.
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It is clearly seen on the hourly timeframe that the pair continues to fall, but it is still impossible to form either a trend line or a descending channel. Thus, at this time, you can focus only on the Ichimoku indicator line and extreme levels. In general, geopolitical, fundamental and macroeconomic backgrounds remain negative for the euro, so we expect the pair to fall again. However, for this it is necessary to overcome the level of 1.0874, with which the bears have had big problems in recent days. We highlight the following levels for trading on Friday - 1.0806, 1.0874, 1.0945, 1.1036, as well as Senkou Span B (1.1066) and Kijun-sen (1.0968). Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. There are also support and resistance levels, but no signals will be formed near them. Signals can be "rebounds" and "breakthrough" extreme levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price has gone in the right direction for 15 points. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. Not a single important or even interesting event is planned for April 8 in the European Union and the United States. Therefore, after a "boring Thursday", we can expect no less "boring Friday". However, you need to be prepared for a "surprise".
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
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